Adrian Frater, News Editor
WESTERN BUREAU:
WHEN THE St. James West Central constituency was created in 1976, attorney-at-law Francis Tulloch, then a rising star on the local political landscape, won the seat for the People's National Party (PNP).
Now, over 30 years later, the former Minister of Tourism, who has bowed in and out of politics on several occasions, is again the party's candidate for the seat, which the Jamaica Labour Party's (JLP) Clive Mullings won in the 2002 General Election.
While the PNP has had a stronger tradition in the constituency, winning it four out of six times in contested general elections since 1976, it should be noted that on the two occasions the JLP won - 1980 and 2002 - the political tide in the parish was flowing in their favour.
"The indicators are once again pointing to a JLP win," said incumbent Member of Parliament Clive Mullings, who won the seat - which comprises electoral divisions such as Granville, Mt. Salem, Spring Gardens and Ros - by 1,159 votes in 2002. "The people are frustrated with this Government," he adds.
Recaptured the seat
After Tulloch's easy win in 1976, St. James West Central fell into the hands of the JLP in the 1980 General Election when Carl Rhoden defeated the PNP's candidate, trade unionist Clive Dobson. With the PNP boycotting the 1983 General Election, the JLP held on to the constituency until 1989.
In the 1989 election, a youthful Patrick Rose-Green recaptured the seat for the PNP as the Michael Manley-led party regained state power. The seat was to remain in the hands of the PNP until 2002. When Rose-Green fell off the political radar, engineer Arthur Nelson took over the mantle and had back-to-back wins in 1993 and 1997.
As was the case in 1980, when the PNP lost St. James WC as the parish swung to the JLP in the 2002 election, Mullings was successful as only Derrick Kellier in St. James South West escaped the JLP sweep.
With Mullings eyeing the prospect of becoming the first repeat JLP MP in the constituency, PNP supporter and respected political analyst, O'Dave Allen, thinks Tulloch needs to find a way to cut into youth support.
"Francis (Tulloch) seems to be galvanising the older folks, but I think he needs to find a way to connect with the young people," opines Allen. "It is absolutely essential that he puts himself in a position to attract votes from across the board."
St. James West Central voting patterns
Constituency Level
1997: Actual Vote
PNP 5,873 (50%)
JLP 5,246 (45%)
Other 618 (5%)
Divisional level
2002: Actual Vote
Total Salt Spring Mount Salem Granville Spring Garden
PNP 46% 42% 57% 48% 37%
JLP 54% 58% 43% 52% 62%
2007: Survey
PNP 26% 23% 27% 28% 24%
JLP 39% 35% 20% 30% 27%
Undecided 18% 13% 20% 22% 20%
Refused 2% 1% 3% 3% 3%
WNV 25% 2%8 30% 18%26%
2002: Actual Vote
PNP 5,980 (46%)
JLP 7,098 (54%)
Other 49 -
2007: Survey
PNP 26% Refused 2%
JLP 29% Undecided 18%
Would Not Vote 25%
