Howard Campbell, Sunday Gleaner Writer
IT HAS been a long time since the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) won the constituency of St. Andrew South East in a contested election - 18 years to be exact. But, according to a Gleaner-commissioned poll by Bill Johnson, that drought may well end this year when a general election is called.
Approximately 480 persons were interviewed by Johnson on April 21-22. One of the key questions posed was: "Regardless of how you feel about your local candidates for Parliament, if the election were held today, do you think you would probably vote for the PNP (People's National Party) candidate, or would you definitely vote for the PNP candidate? Or, would you probably vote for the JLP candidate, or would you definitely vote for the JLP candidate? Or, are you probably not going to vote as things stand now?"
Two per cent said they would probably vote PNP; 28 per cent said their 'X' would definitely go beside the head, the ruling party's symbol. Two per cent also said they would elect the JLP candidate; 33 per cent said they would definitely vote for that party.
Sixteen per cent said they would not vote for either the incumbent, Maxine Henry-Wilson, or the JLP's Joan Gordon-Webley.
Allan Isaacs was the last JLP candidate to be elected to Parliament from St. Andrew South East. The PNP did not contest the 1983 snap election called by Prime Minister Edward Seaga.
Another ominous sign for the PNP is disillusionment among constituents. Seventy-three per cent of residents interviewed said the country was heading in the wrong direction. Sixty-seven per cent believe crime and violence is Jamaica's most pressing problem; 45 per cent said their community was going in the right direction as opposed to 44 per cent who thought the opposite.
Johnson's team also asked constituents to rate the performance of the Government. Twenty-seven per cent said they were doing a bad job; 26 per cent rated it as good.
'Front-bench syndrome'
Johnson said Mrs. Henry-Wilson's absence from the constituency has tilted the balance in her opponent's favour. His diagnosis is that she suffers from 'front-bench syndrome', an ailment that affects several of her Cabinet colleagues.
"They (constituents) feel she should be in Nannyville helping the poor, or on Trafalgar Road fixing the stop lights," Johnson said. "Many constituents feel the same way about other ministers; they feel they should be in their communities."
Henry-Wilson - 'I believe I will win'
EVER SINCE she was a teenager, Maxine Henry-Wilson's political hero has been Norman Manley. She believes he, more than any Jamaican politician, is responsible for this country's social development.
Henry-Wilson has attempted to emulate the founding leader of the People's National Party (PNP) and former Jamaican Premier in her dual roles as Education Minister and Member of Parliament (MP). But, in a recent interview with The Sunday Gleaner, she admitted that fulfilling both responsibilities is "almost impossible."
A Gleaner-commissioned poll by Bill Johnson shows that Henry-Wilson's hectic schedule may be taking its toll. Many of the 480 persons interviewed in her St. Andrew South East constituency seem unimpressed by their MP who was elected in the general election of five years ago. According to the poll, 55 per cent believe it is time for a new representative in Parliament; 27 per cent said Henry-Wilson deserved another term, while 18 per cent were undecided.
Accused of victimisation
St. Andrew South East has been in PNP hands since 1989. Among the disillusioned in South East St. Andrew are residents of Jacques Road, an area with strong JLP ties. Many there accuse Henry-Wilson of victimisation.
"Wi nuh know nothing 'bout she, yuh nuh. A years now wi nuh si she," said one unemployed woman.
"Why when PNP inna power, we can't get job?" asked another.
Henry-Wilson, who was selected as the PNP candidate for St. Andrew South East just months before the October 2002 General Election, scoffs at talk of political bias. She said, like Norman Manley, she believes in long-term development.
"My purpose really is not telling people how many things I can promise or give them," she told The Sunday Gleaner. "I know that is the preferred style for some, but that's not my focus."
While acknowledging unemployment and gang violence as two of the constituency's most pressing problems, Henry-Wilson pointed to several positives during her tenure. These include the upgrading of schools, staging of seminars for teachers, legal electrification for residents and establishing a youth entrepreneurial fair.
Education, she noted, is key to many of her constituents fitting into mainstream society.
"You have to get persons to stay in school because there is no free lunch out there. There is no free job," she stated. "Most of my SESP funds go to keeping people in schools."
She says, no matter what the polls say, she will not be a one-term representative.
"I believe I will win, once we get the organisation on the ground," she said.
'I am hands-on' - Gordon-WebleyJoan Gordon-Webley is one of several candidates making a comeback in the general election which is constitutionally due in October this year.
A diminutive businesswoman in her mid-50s, Gordon-Webley will contest the St. Andrew South East seat on a Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) ticket against incumbent member of parliament (MP), Maxine Henry-Wilson.
Gordon-Webley is a former MP for East Rural St. Andrew, a seat she held for nine years until she was defeated by the PNP's E.G.G. Barrett in 1989. In the mid-1990s, she left the JLP to join Bruce Golding in the newly-formed National Democratic Movement.
Since Golding, now the JLP Leader, announced her selection as constituency caretaker in early 2006 Gordon Webley has made headlines with unflattering statements about her rival, Henry-Wilson, and Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller.
Under pressure
Her supporters have also come under pressure for breaching the Political Code of Conduct, by hanging JLP flags and banners throughout the constituency. Despite the distractions, Gordon-Webley told The Sunday Gleaner recently that she is confident of wresting South East St. Andrew from a MP whom she says operates on "remote control."
"The people have spoken and I know they will speak in a more definitive way on election day," she asserted.
Gordon-Webley's terrier-like approach seems to have won her significant support in St. Andrew South East where the last successful JLP candidate was Allan Isaacs, a former PNP Cabinet member, who won in 1980.
Of 480 persons interviewed in St. Andrew South East, a Gleaner-commissioned Bill Johnson poll found 30 per cent had a favourable view of the JLP candidate. Twenty-five per cent viewed Gordon-Webley as unfavourable, while 45 per cent were not sure if she would be a suitable parliamentary representative.
She claims that South East St. Andrew is begging for proper representation.
"The roads are deplorable, the garbage on the street is deplorable and this is because she (Henry-Wilson) never goes there," Mrs. Gordon-Webley stated. "The people know I have a hands-on approach."
