Vernon Daley

In months from now general elections are expected in Jamaica, Barbados and Trinidad and Opposition parties in all three countries must be fancying their chances of pulling something out of the hat.

We have seen two political upsets in the region recently and I wouldn't be the man to bet against us seeing some more.

The political pundits got it horribly wrong in St. Lucia last December and they suffered the same humiliation in The Bahamas last week. The flop of these king makers is a good thing. They have arrogated a strange power of determining elections before they happen, doubtless influencing the feeble-minded that it would be a waste of time to go out and cast their ballots.

The Bahamas election

If the St. Lucian electorate had followed the script of pollsters like Bill Johnson and Peter Wickham, then Kenny Anthony would still be Prime Minister - with an increased majority at that. Many of the analysts in The Bahamas are still stunned by the defeat of Perry Christie after only one term in office. But it's a valuable lesson for all: in a democracy, the decision on political leadership is that of the people and it's a decision made on election day.

A victory for the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) in the soon-to-be-called election would have to be qualified as a political upset. Even though there is discontent throughout the land and a deep desire among many to see the back of the current administration, there is still that built-in 'feeling' among Jamaicans that the People's National Party (PNP) will pull it off.

The party has a fantastic record of winning elections, so the favourable expectation is hardly surprising. But the leaders of the PNP must be worried that the electorate in two of our Caribbean neighbours has, in months, revolted against educated opinion and popular sentiment.

I suspect there might also be such concerns in the Owen Arthur administration which is now going for its fourth straight term in office. The Barbados election is not due until May next year but all the soundings from the governing party's leadership suggest it could come by the end of 2007.

Barbadians have given good ratings to the stewardship of the diminutive economist but there are growing concerns about arrogance in his administration and its liberal policy on Guyanese immigration. The pollsters and pundits already seem to be calling it for Arthur and his team but I don't think a political upset would be too upsetting for Barbadians.

Over in Trinidad, it's hard to read the politics. There is always so much turmoil. Much like the JLP in former years, the Opposition United National Congress (UNC) has suffered from infighting that has left it a political cripple facing the election later this year.

Last year there was an awful power struggle that led to the resignation of Deputy Leader Winston Dookeran who now has his own party - the Congress of the People.

In the same way that the National Democratic Movement split the JLP vote in the 1997 election here, Dookeran's party seems set to splinter the Indian vote in Trinidad, leaving the governing party with a clear path ahead.

Basdeo Panday, with his heavy baggage, has returned to the leadership of the UNC and that isn't likely to do a whole lot of good for the party going into the polls.

The good thing in all of this for the Opposition parties in Trinidad is that my political punditry is open to suspicion and it's ultimately the voters there who will determine the outcome of the election.