Garwin Davis, Gleaner Writer
While most contests in a general election year are decided on local issues and personalities, national sentiments could well set the stage for the outcome in Central Manchester where the People's National Party (PNP) is in danger of losing its grip on another traditional stronghold.
Will this occur in 2007? And if it does, who will be the beneficiary?
Political pundits suggest the Portia factor could well be the difference, as Donald Buchanan - the ruling party's general secretary - has claimed, between winning and losing nationally.
A Bill Johnson poll done on April 29 shows the Prime Minister ahead of Opposition Leader Bruce Golding in every department, including the critical question of who would do a better job as Prime Minister. Simpson Miller polled 44 per cent to Golding's 34 per cent.
PNP Stronghold
"Sally Porteous could talk all she wants, but PNP doesn't lose elections in Central Manchester," explained Rodney Honeywell, a construction worker from Bellefield, Manchester, as he poured white rum from a bottle at a bar in the predominantly PNP district a week ago. "It doesn't matter who you hear saying what, she will not win this seat."
His colleague, a show promoter from Knockpatrick, Manchester, who goes by the name 'John Wayne', also weighed in. "John Junor has set the trend around here and we will not allow his legacy to die," he said.
"I will not tell you that Sally Porteous would not make a good Member of Parliament. What I am telling you is that she is in the wrong party."
Pressed on whether there was any sort of fatigue with a government that had been in power for 18 years, Honeywell said: "Eighteen years, 25 years, it's all the same. You will never again see a JLP government in this country," he said to a chorus of laughter from other agreeing patrons."
The lone female in the bar, Theresa Williams, added this gem: "Let me tell you something, Mr. Newspaper Man," surmising that I was a reporter because I had been busy jotting down their every word. "We will not switch because this Sally woman is out there screaming to the world about how bad things are. Things are bad everywhere and if we are going to suffer, let us suffer under Sister P (Portia Simpson Miller). Write this down: 'Bellefield will never vote for the JLP'."
This pro-PNP stance seems to resonate in mostly the remote and seemingly poorer areas in the constituency. And in all likelihood, the PNP machinery might be able to use this to their advantage as the country gets closer to the election.
"If the JLP makes this a national referendum on Portia Simpson Miller, this will backfire big time here in Central Manchester," commented Clive Williams, an auto mechanic from Mandeville. "There is no pleasant way to say this, but the poorer the areas and the more depressed the people are, the more they love the PNP.
"If the JLP can keep the race to focus on the issues here in Central Manchester, then the party has a chance. If it becomes a Portia thing, then we may be looking at a fifth consecutive term here in Central Manchester for the PNP."
The Johnson poll shows that the two major problems on voters' minds are crime and joblessness.
"If the election is run on the issues, Sally Porteous will be hard to beat," commented Mark Campbell," a fish vendor from Royal Flat, Manchester. "The strange thing is that if this seat is won, it won't be from any help from Bruce Golding or anyone else in the JLP leadership. It will be from Miss Sally who everybody loves around here, especially in this market. I don't care what anybody want to say, but is she alone I see out there fighting to make our lives better."
