Gareth Manning, Sunday Gleaner Reporter

Political analysts believe the People's National Party (PNP) could be testing the political temperature, as it celebrates party president Portia Simpson Miller's first year as Prime Minister at a mass rally tomorrow.

"The anniversary celebration is the first major rally the party will be hosting in months, and every effort will be made to make the occasion one of the most memorable party events," said the PNP in a press release yesterday.

In addition to festive activities, the rally will be used to formally introduce the PNP's regional slate of candidates for general and parochial elections to party supporters.

Week-long celebration

The PNP, however, has downplayed suggestions that tomorrow's event signals the start of the party's campaign or that it is meant to increase the electioneering rhythm of the party. Deputy General Secretary Julian Robins says Monday's affair is only the start of a week-long celebration of the first anniversary of Mrs. Simpson Miller's achievements over the last year as Prime Minister.

But analysts insist this is an obvious move to turn up the election tempo.

Speaking with The Sunday Gleaner yesterday, political analyst Dickie Crawford said the celebration could well be seen as the unofficial launch to reinvigorate supporters and set the platform for electioneering by cementing in the minds of supporters the achievements of Mrs. Simpson Miller and her Cabinet.

"It is probably the best time [for her to start her campaign] considering all the factors, considering her period in office, considering the level of popularity," he reasoned. The waning popularity of the Prime Minister and the PNP is likely to continue, Crawford said. Therefore, there would be no better time to start campaigning than now.

Has lost support

"All the three official pollsters in the country are in agreement that the PNP has lost [support] and is seen as set to lose more support unless some dramatic thing happens," he said.

Crawford, a political science lecturer at the University of the West Indies, said the party cannot sit down and wait for more bad news to unfold before it starts campaigning.

"They have taken quite a beating in recent times and, therefore, cannot wait to win the next election; they would want to stop that negative trend and become very active and start campaigning," he argued.

Testing supporters

But analyst Lambert Brown believes the PNP may be testing supporters to see how they would respond to what may have been some of the positive spin-off of the island's hosting of Cricket World Cup as well as positive activity in the economy over the last year under the Prime Minister's governance.

"I doubt the PNP will have an unofficial launch at the National Stadium car park. It would either be Norman Manley statue downtown or Half-Way Tree or somewhere in the countryside," he said.

"The economy has seen only 5.8 per cent inflation, reduction in interest rates, and an increase of the net international reserves. They seem to be testing out among the people to what extent the achievements are sufficient to get a re-election of the party," said Brown, who is president of the University and Allied Workers' Union.

If tomorrow's celebration is successful, then it will result in a turning up of the PNP's campaign fervour, he said. He feels the recently announced budget is also part of the strategy, and the elections could be called just after the Budget Debate has been concluded.

'If tomorrow's celebration is successful, then it will result in a turning up of the PNP's campaign fervour.'