John Rapley

MARSEILLE, France:

You can't really blame them. When you lounge in a caf? in Paris's Latin Quarter or dine in a quaint little restaurant to the sounds of boutique jazz, you rather feel for the French's wish not to change amidst a world transforming beyond recognition.

And so, faced with globalisation, the French have reacted like a child to his imaginary monsters: Lie in bed, squeeze one's eyes shut, and hope it will be gone in the morning.

Unfortunately for France, globalisation is not imaginary. While the country tried desperately to soldier on, clinging to peasant farms and independent movie-houses, globalisation continued its advance. An economy resisting re-invention failed to revive its fortunes. And meanwhile, the country filled with imported goods, American music, and immigrants. And when the latter, confined to impoverished ghettos, broke into open revolt, the country was left to face the fact that it had no answers to the future's questions.

The French political establishment - typified by the directionless decadence of the Chirac presidency - had no reply. It was mystified. The last presidential elections, five years ago, showed just how moribund the French directorate had become. Many voters - the young especially - tuned out. Those who did turn up at the polls showed a striking propensity for political radicalism: only the extreme left and right showed any interest in bold solutions to the country's woes.

With the left splintering, the Socialist candidate failed to make it through to the second round. Instead, a strong showing by the National Front's Jean-Marie Le Pen brought upon France the shame of having an unabashed neo-fascist in the final round of the presidential election. Millions of French voters then held their noses and went out to vote for a conservative candidate, Jacques Chirac, who had few ideas and plenty of legal problems, just to prevent a flamboyant loon from governing their country.

Solution to rioting ghettos

Mr. Le Pen rocked the political establishment. He made immigration - his solution to rioting ghettos is to send the foreigners back home - a major issue. But he also put neo-liberalism onto the national agenda. This time around, the political establishment has taken notice.

The leading right-wing candidate in next month's presidential election is Nicolas Sarkozy. A minister at loggerheads with his own president, he has arguably gone further than anyone in the French establishment in calling for France to adopt US-style free-market reforms. Of course the French will always be French. Mr. Sarkozy is anything but a Reagan-style small-government conservative. Nevertheless, he represents what could become the boldest break in French politics for some time.

Disliked for willingness

His left-wing opponent is the Socialist Segolene Royal. Her own party's establishment dislikes her for her willingness to jettison some sacred cows of the left, as evidenced by her tough stand on law and order. But the powers-that-be knew how unpopular they were, and chose her as the only Socialist with a hope of beating Mr. Sarkozy. Still, until recently, she trailed Mr. Sarkozy badly in polls.

Her recent revival owes less to her inventiveness than to the appearance of a novel force in French politics: the centre. Francois Bayrou is a centre-right candidate who calls for neoliberalism to be blended with French traditions. He wants to create a technocratic and non-partisan government. And he is surging, with polls now suggesting he could even beat Mr. Sarkozy.

French politics is rarely dull, and next month's elections will prove no exception to that rule. But for the first time in a long time, French voters may be facing a real choice between novel positions, and not a menu of the same old same-old. Stay tuned.