Tony Becca

The 2006 version of the Ashes series, the cricket contest between Australia and England, opens in Brisbane on Thursday, tomorrow night local time, and like last year in England when the home team, after losing the first Test by a whopping 239 runs, recovered to win the second by two wickets, the fourth by three, and to take the series 2-1, it promises to be another thrilling contest.

Who will win it? That is a difficult question to answer.

To many a man, England, who were in the wilderness for 16 years following Australia's 4-0 victory in 1989, must be the favourites - for the simple reason that with Australia's likely eleven parading only three players under age 30, with England's likely 11 showing probably only two players above age 30, the England team is younger, fitter, and more likely to last the course of what is expected to be a tough and exacting contest.

Easy pickings

To them, the fading eyesight, the slower reflexes, and the creaking joints of "Dad's Army" will make Australia easy pickings for the younger, more robust England.

Australia, however, have not picked up their old men off the heap, dusted them off, and recalled them to battle. Men like Matthew Hayden, Justin Langer, Ricky Ponting, Damien Martyn, Michael Hussey, Adam Gilchrist, Shane Warne and Glenn McGrath have been active, they have been in action continuously, they have maintained their fitness and their performance, even if they are not as brilliant as they used to be, they are still good in the field, and they are likely to score as many runs and take as many wickets as when they were five years younger.

As good as Andrew Strauss, Alastair Cooke, Ian Bell, Paul Collingwood, Kevin Pieterson and captain Andrew Flintoff may be, on paper Australia's Hayden, Langer, Pointing, Martyn, Hussey, possible Michael Clarke or Shane Watson, and Gilchrist are as good as England's batting line-up if not better; and as good as Steve Harmison, Matthew Hoggard, James Anderson, Ashley Giles or Monty Panesar may be, England's attack, especially without the injured Simon Jones and with Flintoff not recovered enough to bowl as much as he would like, should not be as good as Australia's - not with the home team's attack boasting Brett Lee and McGrath, probably Watson and one of the left-handed Mitchell Johnson, Stuart Clark or the fast, really fast Shaun Tait along with ace right-arm leg-spinner Shane Warne.

Experienced batsman

On top of all that, and apart from captain Michael Vaughan, England will be without Marcus Trescothick - their most experienced batsman, one of their best batsmen against Warne, and their brilliant slip fielder.

The Test match, and the series, could all depend on the final selections - on the two elevens which take the field, and while for Australia the only problem, it appears, surrounds the number six position, for England it involves that of the spin bowler.

Australia, it seems, will put in Watson at number six as the pace bowling all-rounder to support Lee, McGrath and possibly Tait. With Watson ailing and doubtful, however, they may bring in Clarke and go in with only four bowlers.

For England, the problem is whether to play Giles or Panesar, and although they may be tempted to go for Giles who is more experienced than Panesar, they would be well advised to go for Chris Read and Panesar.

Panesar spins the ball more than Giles, flights the ball more Giles, and is more aggressive. On Australian pitches where the ball bounces more than any where else in the world and against Australian batsmen, the 24-year-old Panesar must be a better bet than Giles - the 33-year-old 'grandfather' of the England team.

Only time will tell who the winners will be. One thing is certain, however, the contest should be interesting and exciting, and with Vaughan, Trescothick and Jones missing from the England team, with England going for Geraint Jones - a wicketkeeper who can make a few runs but is likely to drop a few catches, instead of Chris Read - a wicketkeeper who is unlikely to make more than a few runs but who is likely to take all the catches that come his way, with the home team's bowling so strong that they can do without the left-handed pacer Nathan Bracken, my money is on Australia to win.