( L - R ) CHANG and HENRY

Three leading political commentators have attributed the decline in popular support for the governing People's National Party (PNP) to the Trafigura Beheer scandal and the perceived inaction of Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller.

According to political analyst Kevin O'Brien Chang, the Prime Minister's competency was called into question by her recent handling of the Trafigura scandal.

"The way Mrs. Simpson Miller handled it has not been to the populace's satisfaction. That has been the lingering after effect," he said.

32 per cent tie

A Gleaner-commissioned-Bill Johnson poll published yesterday, showed a 32 per cent tie in support for both the PNP and the JLP.

This, however, was a six percentage point decrease in support for the PNP and a six per cent increase for the JLP from findings of the last poll in July.

The poll, conducted on October 28 and 29, has a margin of error of plus or minus three per cent.

Chang added that the longer Mrs. Simpson Miller takes to regain the confidence of Jamaicans, the more support the JLP could garner.

"They are doing something right but you are still hearing the big knock on the JLP side, what do they stand for, what is going to change if you come to power?"

Analyst Helene Davis-White, who is also the general secretary of Jamaica Association of Local Government Officers, agrees that the Trafigura scandal has been a significant factor in the decline in support for the PNP.

She also believes Jamaicans have become wary of the approach of the PNP.

"A lot of Jamaicans are disillusioned with the approach of the Prime Minister because I think many of them expected that she would have made a difference in terms of how she governed," she argued.

Mrs. Davis-White also said the candidate selection row in the PNP is hurting its image because it conflicts with the usual claims of a united party.

Meanwhile, both Mrs. Davis-White and Mr. Chang believe that based on the polls, the Prime Minister will not announce an election this year. But political commentator Martin Henry sees this as the best time for the Prime Minister to call the elections.

"If I were the Prime Minister I would take my chances now be-cause if the trajectory continues it is only a matter of time before the JLP is clearly in the lead, so these polls, depending on how seriously the PNP is prepared to treat them, suggest very early elections," he said.