Bruce Golding and Prime Minister
Portia Simpson Miller - File photos
The Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) has gained ground in the latest Gleaner-commissioned Bill Johnson poll, racing to a dead heat with the governing People's National Party (PNP) whose support continues to shrink as the party struggles to shrug off the Trafigura Beheer scandal and a new wave of discord triggered by a decision to replace a sitting MP in its candidate selection process.
A 32 per cent backing for both major parties has increased the political temperature to fever pitch, leaving the PNP scampering to regain the hearts and minds of many who have withdrawn their support.
"This poll is double trouble for the PNP, showing negative momentum following the party's euphoric peak at the beginning of March, but the JLP, which has been moribund all year, has finally started to move and now has positive momentum," says pollster Bill Johnson.
Johnson and his team of researchers polled 1,008 eligible voters in 84 communities across Jamaica's 14 parishes. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus three per cent.
A Surge of Euphoria
Portia Simpson Miller's ascendancy to the position of Prime Minister and president of the PNP in March was accompanied by a surge of euphoria, which gripped the country for weeks, catapulting the island's first female head of Government's favourable rating to an unprecedented 78 per cent.
This, however, was short-lived as six weeks after Mrs. Simpson Miller's appointment, popular support for the Prime Minister declined steeply, according to a Bill Johnson poll.
Her favourability rating dropped to 64 per cent, a 14 percentage point fall.
Many Commentators
and political analysts argued that the Prime Minister's ratings slipped not only because the bliss surrounding her rise to power had worn off but as a result of how she dealt with the cement crisis.
The cement debacle had left about 30,000 construction workers temporarily out of a job and estimates from the Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ) showed that the economy suffered as a result of the fallout. Despite several calls for the resignation of the Industry and Commerce Minister, Phillip Paulwell, over his poor handling of the issue, the Prime Minister declared full support for the portfolio minister.
The Prime Minister's decline also came against the background of growing discontent within the party earlier this year, which saw persons loyal to Mrs. Simpson Miller seeking to unseat supporters of Dr. Peter Phillips to represent the party in the next general elections. A bitter race for the presidency of the party, which included Dr. Phillips, had left scars which remained ruptured for sometime.
When pollster Johnson conducted the March poll, 52 per cent of the electorate had indicated that they would give the nod to the governing party to form the next administration, while a moderate 26 per cent lined up behind the JLP.
Seven months later, however, the PNP's fortunes dipped by 20 per cent while the JLP has now shifted gears from neutral, having remained at 26 per cent from March to July, but was now building its political stocks with a six percentage points increase.
Growing support for the JLP could be attributed to its work on the ground, which started with a major campaign launched in July targeting a number of parishes across the island.
The party gained more traction on the political landscape in early October when it pulled off a coup in Gordon House during a debate on a censure motion against Opposition MP, Karl Samuda, for his "misleading" statement that the Noel Hylton Report on the Sandals Whitehouse project was submitted to former Prime Minister P.J. Patterson and the Cabinet.
Opposition Leader Bruce Golding's attempts to disclose the Trafigura Beheer donation of $31 million to the PNP in Parliament was thwarted by House Speaker Michael Peart who argued that the matter was not relevant to the debate. Golding and members of the Opposition subsequently stormed out of the chambers and held a press conference in the Opposition's quarters where he revealed the Trafigura affair.
Since that announcement the hierarchy of the party has made strenuous attempts to deny allegations of corruption and inappropriate dealings with the Dutch-based oil trading company.
As the saga heightened in October, information and development minister and PNP general secretary Colin Campbell tendered his resignation to the Prime Minister, stating that he did not share details of the Trafigura transaction with the party president, chairman, legal officer of the party or any other officer.
The money was sent to an account called CCOC Associates, which was originally set up to raise funds for Mr. Campbell in the early 1990s when he entered representational politics.
Meanwhile, up to late last week the PNP had not sent back the $31 million donation to Trafigura, although the Prime Minister had given instructions almost a month ago for the money to be returned.
Johnson's latest poll has also placed the spotlight on those sitting on the political fence, the numbers of which have fluctuated over the last four polls between March and October. In March, the undecided stood at eight per cent, moved to 13 per cent in May and July and dropped to nine per cent in October.
Twenty-five per cent of the electorate has sent a strong signal to both political parties stating that they would not vote in upcoming elections. The number jumped from 12 percentage points in March to 25 percentage points in October.
In the meantime, agitated supporters of the PNP in the South East St. Elizabeth constituency, represented by Lenworth Blake, are warning party officials to reconsider its decision to replace their candidate with former JLP and independent senator Norman Horne. Already, four candidates selected to run in the next local government elections have resigned as a mark of protest against the party's decision.
In an interview with The Gleaner late last week, Mr. Blake, the sitting MP, said this move by the party would have a far-reaching negative impact on the PNP in the next election.
