Robert Lalah, Staff Reporter

Drivers wait at a damaged road outside of Culiacan in Mexico's state of Sinaloa after Hurricane Lane hit the area on September 17. - Reuters Local disaster preparedness experts are also warning against complacency

So it's the last week in September and the most active part of the hurricane season has come and gone, yet despite predictions of a turbulent season, the country still hasn't experienced a major hurricane. But why?

Well in May, forecasters in the United States predicted that this year's hurricane season, which started on June 1 and ends November 30, would have been very active. The period considered the most active is early to mid-September. They predicted that there would have been 17 named tropical storms, nine of which would become hurricanes. Five of these were expected to become major hurricanes.

But in August, the forecasters went back to the drawing board and revised their projections. They now expect 12 to 15 named storms, with seven to nine gaining hurricane status. Of those, they said three or four would strengthen to be major hurricanes.

But why is this hurricane season so different from last year's record-breaking season? In 2005, there were 28 tropical storms, of which 15 became hurricanes. Seven strengthened into major hurricanes.

According to Senior Weather Forecaster Evan Thompson, the season has been more active than people probably realise. The majority of the activity though, has taken place outside of the Caribbean region. "Pressures in the Caribbean area have also been higher than normal. Lower pressures are required for the development of storms," he said.

Factors are different

Information from the United States Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration backed up what Mr. Thompson said. According to the agency, water temperatures, wind patterns and other factors that guide storm development are not the same as they were a year ago. The agency noted that the combination of climate factors that would normally produce an extremely active season, the factors that were in place for the last three years, have now dissipated, leading to a less tumultuous hurricane season.

But that doesn't mean we're in the clear just yet! Mr. Thompson was quick to point out that this was not the time to be complacent.

"We could still see some more storms develop in October and November," he said.

Local disaster preparedness experts are also warning against complacency. They urge residents to monitor reports of storms closely and to take all warnings seriously.