History, they say, has a habit of repeating itself, but often with nasty quirks. So, it seems, does Israel. Let's be reminded of a little piece of history.
In 1982, Israel's army crossed its border into Lebanon ostensibly to secure its northern regions from attacks primarily from the Palestinian Liberation Organisation (PLO), then headed by Yasser Arafat, who is now dead.
Arafat and the PLO, having been routed from Lebanon during that country's civil war of the early 1970s, had set up shop in southern Lebanon, existing there in a tense relationship with the region's largely Shi'ite community, then the marginalised of Lebanon's religious/sectarian groups. At the time, the most powerful of Shia militia in Lebanon's sectarian conflict was the Amal Movement, the predecessor organisation of the Hezbollah party.
Ironically, Israel's incursion into southern Lebanon was initially welcomed by the Shia community, which, although sympathetic to the Palestinian cause, had chafed under the PLO's effective state within a state. Israeli soldiers, it is claimed, were garlanded at the invasion.
Israel, though, lost the plot. It overstayed its welcome, went for the overkill and eventually surrendered its soul, at least in Lebanon. By 1985, in face of the fast-shifting alliances in the Lebanese civil war, Israeli soldiers stood guard while fighters of the Maronite Christian militia of the right-wing Phalange party massacred thousands in the Palestinian refugee camp of of Sabra and Shatilla.
An Israeli inquiry held the then defence minister, Ariel Sharon, who later became Prime Minister and now lies in a coma, as among those being responsible for the massacres.
Nearly six years ago, having retreated to southern Lebanon and nearly two decades of skirmishes with Hezbollah, the Israeli army retreated across its own border.
Now, after nearly a fortnight of 'shock and awe' bombardment of Lebanon, that has left hundreds dead, more than half a million people displaced and the country largely in ruins, the Israeli Defence Force is apparently poised for another invasion of Lebanon, ostensibly to dismantle the guerrilla group and recapture two of its soldiers that were captured by the organisation. Israel apparently believes that the projection of its military capacity will ensure its security.
Therein lies an unlearnt lesson from history.
Nearly two decades ago, Hezbollah enhanced its legitimacy not only by championing the Shia cause, but by projecting itself as a fighter for the cause of Palestinians displaced by Israel and standing up to the Jewish state. Two years ago, with Hezbollah now the state within the Lebanese state, hundreds of thousands went onto the streets in the so-called Cedar Revolution, demanding its disarming and the withdrawing from Lebanon of the troops of one of Hezbollah's main sponsors, Syria.
In all likelihood, as it did a quarter of a century ago, Israel has miscalculated by its disproportionate response to Hezbollah's provocation. Lebanon's civilian population, particularly its young, are likely to see Israel's destruction of their country as collective punishment rather than targeted action against Hezbollah.
The Cedar Revolution will have lost its sheen and a Middle East population that was tending to moderation is likely to be bitter and radicalised.
In this circumstance, it will be harder for Israel to achieve, and enjoy, the security which is its right and which it deserves. The greater tragedy is that Israel and its key backers seem to be missing the point.
THE OPINIONS ON THIS PAGE, EXCEPT FOR THE ABOVE, DO NOT NECESSARILY REFLECT THE VIEWS OF THE GLEANER.
