Don Robotham, Contributor
Opposition Leader Bruce Golding gestures while making his contribution to the 2006/07 Budget Debate in the House of Representatives last Thursday. Looking on is Opposition Spokesman on Finance, Audley Shaw. - Rudolph Brown/Chief Photographer
AT LAST, the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) seems to be on the right track.
Their performance this week makes it crystal clear that they have finally come around to supporting the essentials of the economic model pursued by Dr. Omar Davies over these many years. Not in every detail, but the key essentials.
This is a really healthy turn in the debate on economic policy and is good for Jamaica. Now that Dr. Davies, Shaw and Golding are in agreement, maybe the populists in Jamaica House will finally see the light.
As is well known, a managed float is a key element of Dr. Davies' policy, as distinct from a fixed exchange rate.
In his speech, while kicking and screaming, Shaw backed that policy. Listen to him on the burning issue of fixing the exchange rate. The Gleaner (May 3) reported the following: "He stated that the Opposition believed that the policy of fixing the exchange rate could be inappropriate for Jamaica at this time."
Shaw went further and pointed out even more dangerous aspects of the fixed exchange rate proposal.
He said it could also lead to a loss of our international reserves, a loss of competitiveness, specu-lative attacks on the Jamaican dollar and a loss of international confidence.
Notwithstanding the political gobbledegook, therefore, it is clear that the JLP has now come out in support of the managed float regime of Dr. Davies and the Governor of the Bank of Jamaica. Score one for Dr. Davies.
MACROECONOMIC STABILITY
Listen also to Shaw on the other central element of Dr. Davies' economic model. This is the issue of inflation targeting and macro-economic stability.
The Jamaica Observer reported that Shaw said he was in favour of "prudent and credible macroe-conomic policies." In fact, Mr. Shaw made this into the very first principle of JLP economic policy.
According to The Gleaner account, "In Mr. Shaw's view, any plan to revive the economy must begin by attacking the debt, which means that plans to "embark on the [sic] massive social spending are not sustainable."
According to Shaw, the Opposition does not believe that the policy of fiscal discipline should be abandoned, but Jamaica must abandon a Government unable to implement it.
According to this account, the JLP is seeking a mandate from the Jamaican people to better implement the macroeconomic model of Davies. Two nil to Dr. Davies!
After much debate, at last the country has achieved consensus on the essentials at least between Dr. Davies and the JLP.
Now the issue is: Who can better implement the inflation targeting, managed float model a populist-minded, wasteful People's National Party (PNP) without the restraining influence of Omar Davies, or a Bruce Golding-led JLP?
STATESMANSHIP BY JLP LEADERS
Shaw and Golding, however, have a serious problem on their hands. They have spent years inculcating the idea in the heads of their supporters that the Davies economic model is wrong.
How will they explain their new position? In carrying through that burdensome task, they will be up against all the powerful forces of JLP tribalism.
It will cost them politically and may well put them in an impossible situation. One can therefore expect more kicking and screaming from that quarter.
But pay no attention to that. There can be little doubt that we are witnessing a unique event in Jamaican politics: A real policy shift driven by principle.
In adopting this more principled approach, the JLP leadership has displayed real statesmanship. They have put the interests of Jamaica before narrow tribal party interests. It is now up to civil society to recognise the courage which it has taken to make this critical step.
The policy difficulty of the JLP is a textbook case of where in-bred Jamaican political tribalism leads. It places an intolerable burden on the political leadership and makes it practically impossible for those who would like to be more constructive, such as Golding, to adopt a position based on reason.
But Shaw and Golding must meet this challenge of JLP tribalism head on. They must not blink. If they stay the course, they will receive much public support. If they start to shilly-shally and backslide, they are doomed.
Contrary to what some think, tribalism is not the creation of our political leadership, although many political leaders exploit it.
It is a force existing indepen-dently of leadership. It wells up from below. The essence of tribalism is the wilful suppression of one's critical faculties in order to be blindly loyal to one side.
The crux of it is to see no merit whatsoever in the policies and arguments of the other side and to impute evil motives to them.
This pressure from below and from within leads you to give your opponents a good 'tracing' and to attack them as 'wicked.' In this game, reason and data do not count. What matters are emotion and personalities. 'It's all Omar's fault'. But that line won't wash now.
DEEP-ROOTED TRIBALISM
This deep-rooted Jamaican tribalism is not, as some imagine, the result of our present constitution. That is a profoundly naïve view.
Jamaican tribalism is centuries old. It was one of the factors which undermined the political unity of slave revolts in the 17th and 18th centuries. Indeed, one of the reasons why Sam Sharpe's Baptist War is so significant is precisely because it did not have a tribal basis unlike, for example, in Tacky's case in 1760.
As Dr. Patrick Wilmot once insightfully argued in another newspaper, drawing on his experience in Nigeria, political tribalism is the result of Jamaicans consolidating our original African ethnic divisions into larger political identities.
There is no legal regulation known to man, or God for that matter, which can change this powerfully divisive cultural force which has its roots deep in our history. Education, persistent struggle and time are the only ways.
TRIBAL MENTALITY
The tendency to be swept up in uncritical worship of charismatic leadership is part of this same tribal mentality.
This is why the proposal to change the Jamaican Constitution to install a presidential system is so disastrous. Human rights advocates imagine that this will bring Jeffersonian democracy to Jamaica. An astonishing example of naïvety and constitutional formalism!
It is not the abstract words written on a piece of paper which make a constitution effective. It's the actual, real institutional and cultural context in which the constitution functions. It's the habitual practices which count.
In practice, given the messianic characteristics of Jamaican political culture, a presidential system will bring more dictatorship.
It will create an all-powerful, religiously-anointed, Anancy presidency.
Charismatic manipulation, already rampant, will run wild. It will not weaken tribalism but strengthen it. Both presidential and parliamentary elections then will simply be reduced to beauty contests between this leader and that.
In a beauty contest between Bruce and Sister P, who do you suppose would win?
