Howard Campbell, Gleaner Writer
WHEN IT comes to predicting elections, Bill Johnson knows there is no bigger critic of a pollster than a politician who comes out on the wrong side of the numbers.
Mr. Johnson, a pollster for over 30 years, got another taste of that last week when a poll he conducted, commissioned by The Gleaner, gave the governing People's National Party (PNP) a 26-point lead over the opposition Jamaica Labour Party (JLP).
This big boost for the PNP, according to the poll, is based on the popularity of Portia Simpson Miller who will be sworn in as Prime Minister on Thursday, one month after being elected president of the party. This will be formalised at today's meeting of the party's National Executive Council (NEC) in Ocho Rios, when P.J. Patterson demits the office of president, which he has held for 14 years.
RELATIONSHIP
Senior members of the JLP, citing Mr. Johnson's perceived close relationship with the PNP, described the poll as biased and flawed. But last week Mr. Johnson, a 64-year-old American, defended his work, and integrity, saying such criticism comes with the territory.
"The JLP is trying to make me out as the house pollster for the PNP...I'm not," he told The Sunday Gleaner. "They have to attack the messenger because it's difficult to attack the message," he added. "Now, I assume that we are going to be doing more polls and chances are Portia's bounce is going to go down, and if subsequent polls show the margin becoming narrower, I have a feeling that my credibility is going to improve with them (JLP)."
The Johnson/Gleaner polls were done between March 5-6 in the 14 parishes, with 1,008 persons interviewed. To the question, 'If an election was called today who would you vote for and why?' 52 per cent said they would back the PNP for a fifth term if elections were held now. Twenty-six per cent of the respondents chose the JLP.
DISSATISFACTION
During his time in the field, Mr. Johnson says he observed widespread dissatisfaction with the PNP's performance after 17 years in office. Yet, with Mrs. Simpson Miller's persona as the 'poor people champion' most are willing to give them another five years in office.
"The challenge she faces is that she's coming into office with women and young people having high expectations for her," Mr. Johnson explained. "A lot of people have been looking for change and some people can see the vehicle for change in the JLP, but most see that vehicle of change being through Portia Simpson Miller."
JLP general secretary Karl Samuda says he does not discount the effect Mrs. Simpson Miller's personal charm may have on the electorate. However, he says the Johnson poll has not made his party push the panic button. "Personally, I don't quarrel with pollsters, but one must never overlook bias," he said on Friday. "The party won't be getting in any controversy with Mr. Johnson, we are not in the least affected by his poll."
Born in Connecticut, Mr. Johnson attended Yale University. He also studied polling at the Survey Research Centre at the University of Michigan, where the respected Jamaican pollster Carl Stone also attended.
For many years, he says he polled for corporate companies and politicians in New York, including former New York City Mayor, David Dinkins. He told The Sunday Gleaner that he was selected by the PNP 10 years ago from a pool of pollsters in the United States to do work for them going into the 1997 general elections.
ACCURATE PREDICTION
He says he accurately predicted the results for the 1997 and 2002 national elections. Also, the 2003 Local Government elections which the JLP won.
"In over 30 years, these (PNP) are without doubt the brightest political people I have worked with," he said. "If my information didn't prove to be correct they would have dropped me after the '97 elections."
His call on the 2002 polls were not as accurate as he claimed. One week before the national polls in October 2002, Mr. Johnson said the PNP would take 42 per cent of the vote to the JLP's 29 per cent. The Stone Organisation also called a landslide for the PNP. Only Market Research Services Limited, headed by Don Anderson, got close to the eventual seat count of 34 to 26 seats in favour of the PNP.
Following the 1997 General Election Mr. Johnson, a three-time divorcee and father of seven, decided to move to Jamaica permanently. In addition to working for The Gleaner and the PNP, he has done surveys for companies such as Grace Kennedy Limited and Red Stripe.
