Shalman Scott, ContributorBILL JOHNSON has been forced to defend his professional integrity as a result of snide remarks from the JLP regarding his latest findings in polls conducted for the Gleaner Company.
In response to the JLP criticism, Johnson asserts his pedigree by naming top-of-the-line clients of his, both here and abroad. I have only met the man through his polls, but it is my view that Johnson is just as good as any pollster can get.
I also do not subscribe to the opinion that he would jeopardise his career by peddling biased views (a subjective judgement difficult to escape in Jamaica) in favour of one political party in this case the PNP.
The JLP, through its General Secretary Karl Samuda while pouring scorn on the Johnson poll findings declared that the JLP has done its own polls while conceding on a morning radio programme that Prime Minister-designate Portia Simpson Miller's presidential victory has boosted the PNP chances for a fifth term.
Samuda's quarrel, therefore, is not with similar findings by Johnson, but rather the extent of the truth printed by Johnson. The JLP cannot accept that the PNP's general popularity among Jamaicans in relation to the JLP at this time. According to the Johnson's poll, it now stands at a ratio of 2:1 (52 per cent PNP, 26 per cent JLP).
The deteriorating fiscal situation, the new-found unity within the JLP, coupled with its electoral performance in 2002, and more so in the 2003 local government election, are factors in the JLP's favour. Not to mention an increasingly vocal and more coordinated cadre of opposition spokespersons these including Audley Shaw and new kid Clive Mullings who are tackling
various issues of national and sectoral concerns with more vim, vigour and vitality.
One suspects and it is a
reasonable position to hold that the JLP is most disappointed with the responses from those polled and published by Bill Johnson. Simply put, the JLP thinks that, in light of all the things it considers going for that party, it should have a much better rating among the electorate . Consequently, the JLP's strategic response to the 'bad news' is to attack the messenger rather than deal with the message.
Seized by its desire to reject outright or go into denial about the poll, the JLP has missed the most crucial point in last Sundays poll results.
This is that the 46 per cent of the of the sample who responded said that there should be no early election. In other words while there is the outpouring of emotion expressed in nebulous political terms as 'woman time' (25 per cent of 52 per cent PNP support) and give 'Portia a Chance' (20 per cent of 52 per cent PNP support)-a solid block of 46 per cent although drunk with the love for sister P- by expressing their non support for quick or early elections -shows also that they are not fools.
The next general election is constitutionally due in October 2007 and whatever chance Portia Simpson Miller should be given lies within that period of time. The JLP totally missed the sentiments of that 46 per cent block of respondents. The Prime Minister designate - despite the love and patience towards her - is not being given a blank cheque! To my mind this was the real news in last Sunday's polls.
Everything else as reported should have been expected even by the JLP.
Allegations of Corruption and waste (mostly) is now estimated at $11 billion since 1989 and over 17 years of the PNP government. When a public opinion poll shows a possibility of a fifth term for the PNP, many supporters who have grown arrogant and rude will only get worse.
The corrupt and incompetent within that party have been given a new lease on our lives as we are taken even more for granted.
The JLP has more than enough resources to break the spell of a fifth term defeat.
But, I suspect that while the party may look the most handsome and most unified ever, its reservoir of political skills and creativity have suffered irrevocably by the years of bleeding and divisiveness. Still, the party needs not lose heart because of the latest polls as we all know public option is fickle.
This year's post-budget polls, I strongly suspect, will prove the point even more. Additionally, the JLP must recall that it is only eight seats that separate the PNP and the JLP in the Parliament. Bill Johnson reported the general sentiments of how people would vote if an election were called on the day when the question was asked - "who would you vote for if an election was called today and why?" 46 per cent of those polled has expressed the view that there should be no early election.
If the Portia Simpson Miller-led government ignores such sentiments and call early elections -many will want to know why the rush? What is it lurking in the dark which requires an early election before it comes down on us? Accordingly another issue - that of sincerity - would have been brought into the election agenda.
The JLP ought to know our Jamaican people well and should now be busy - if our two party democracy is to be well served - getting people on the voters list in the respective constituencies where the elections will be decided. That exercise will redound to the benefit of the JLP instead of its preoccupation with quarrelling over poll results that seem unfavourable to it at this point in time.
The recent PNP presidential contest served to underscore once again that the Jamaican voter is a political artist. The JLP cannot be unaware of this fact. Could they?
Shalman Scott is a political analyst.
