Robert BuddanIN THE coming week, a new prime minister and cabinet will be appointed, and in the weeks after that the new government will address those matters that are of greatest importance in governing a country Š financial management and government administration Š in the budget presentation. In the coming week as well, there will be a delegates conference of public sector workers to decide on the next public sector Memorandum of Understanding (MoU). For all these reasons, the next week will be of vital importance for JamaicaÕs political and economic future.
Stability and predictability become very important. Over a five-week period Š February 25 to March 31Š Jamaican politics will have undergone a transition from one party president, prime minister, and cabinet to another. The process has been smooth so far. Within three days from February 25-28, the PNP elected a new president who was officially approved by Cabinet, and more importantly, from a constitutional standpoint, by Parliament. We must ensure that this seamlessness continues.
Since then the outgoing Prime Minister has been preparing the Prime Minister-designate on sensitive matters of state relating to security, intelligence, and foreign affairs; and the Prime Minister-designate would have been meeting with her advisers, studying her new responsibilities, giving thought to the Cabinet she will appoint and her own role in that Cabinet.
That transition moves into its final stage this week. On March 26 (today), Mr. Patterson makes his final appearance as president of the PNP at a meeting of the National Executive Council. On this occasion, Portia Simpson Miller takes over as the new party president. Then on March 28, Mr. Patterson will make his last appearance in Parliament at a special sitting to mark his service and to say farewell. On March 30, Mr. Patterson will resign as Prime Minister and Portia Simpson Miller will be sworn in. On March 31, the new Cabinet will follow.
PREPARING FOR POWER
Although these dates and occasions are known, I repeat them because Jamaicans should appreciate the importance of a seamless transition. It cannot be taken for granted in many countries. Although it does not involve a general election and a transition from one party to another, it still involves the formation of government, a major purpose of our democracy. The economy, for instance, wants a planned and predictable process to minimise the risk of market volatility and capital flight, should investors get nervous about the credibility of the process of politics and the nature of government.
There seems little risk of this. Jamaicans have been psychologically prepared for over three years when Mr. Patterson announced that he would retire by 2007. We were also prepared politically by the PNP campaign and elections during which the candidates and their visions became well known. For some time now the public has had a good idea about who the next party president and prime minister might be.
The country is now constitutionally prepared for the final stages of this succession. A new Governor-General is in place to perform the highest duties of his office, to accept the resignation of a Prime Minister, satisfy himself that Parliament supports a new leader of the parliamentary majority, and proceed to appoint that person.
It will then be up to the Prime Minister to prepare a government for the country. There must be a coherent policy and a cohesive Cabinet in place. That
aspect of the transition too must be seamless. Mr. Patterson has already said this is how it should be. There is no point changing Cabinet on the eve of a Budget debate. The immediate period is a time for governing, not political positioning. As party president, however, Mrs. Simpson Miller will want to pursue a parallel process of preparing her party for her own electoral mandate and for a subsequent Cabinet. But that must be a separate matter.
Financial credibility
The finance team must stay in place. The Minister of Finance and his team accomplished something remarkable a few weeks ago. They raised US$250 million on the international financial markets to support the external financing needs of the coming yearÕs budget. The international market was confident enough to invest in a budget long before it is adopted by Parliament and at a time when the country was going through a change of leadership. The market has obviously become accustomed to predictability in macro-economic policy. It has gambled on the macro-economic reputation of the finance ministry and the good sense of the ruling party. That gamble must not fail.
The international financial market is not a forgiving one. It has a long memory. It has taken some time for us to build this credibility. In markets, credibility is key, not political popularity. Jamaica will need this credibility in the long term. The fact that this recent issue was quickly oversubscribed means that, under present conditions, there is more for us if we want it. We donÕt want to do anything right now to jeopardise investments in 20 and 30-year bonds for longer-term development.
As for the larger Cabinet, Mrs. Simpson Miller has some time. She should consult more with the broader party. Prime Ministers are often thought to have too much power to hire and fire ministers. Mrs. Simpson Miller must have that power but she can bring the party that elected her more fully and deliberately into this important process. After all, it is the party that forms the government.
Transition and the MoU
Government and public sector unions intend to sign off on the new MoU on March 31. We could then have a seamless transition of government and its vital social partnership with public sector employees. That government would then be able to deliver its budget with a new MoU already in place. This would surely add immense credibility to the promise of continued prudent economic management that the international financial market expects. Add to that the fact that economic growth in the last quarter of 2005 was over four percent and is expected at more than three percent for this first quarter, and the justification for confidence in the budget and its partnership greatly improves.
It is a great pity that the private sector initiative - the Partnership for Progress - the same partnership that Mr. Patterson had thought would have been signed and sealed by summer last year, did not materialise.
There are enough women leaders across government, private sector, and unions to fashion something worthy in this urgent period. Beverly Lopez heads the PSOJ and Doreen Frankson leads the Jamaica Manufacturers Association (JMA). Audrey Hinchcliffe and Marjory Kennedy head the Jamaica EmployerÕs Association and Helene Davies-Whyte heads the Jamaica Association of Local Government Officers (JALGO). Portia Simpson Miller, head of government, will need to bring these leaders and their associations together as proof that women do have real power and that if they want a partnership for progress they can get it.
Mrs. Simpson Miller will take over the reigns of government with a growing economy. It is out of this growth that human development will come. Politics must not interfere with government in any way that will cause government to interfere with these positive signs in the economy.
Robert Buddan is a lecturer in the department of Government at the University of the West Indies. You can send your comments to Robert.Buddan@uwimona.edu.jm
