Arnold Bertram, Contributor
ON MARCH 30, 2006, P.J. Patterson will celebrate the 14th anniversary of his tenure as Prime Minister of Jamaica. That could very well be the date he has chosen for the installation of his successor.
If this prognosis is correct we could be looking at an announcement of the date at the meeting of the People's National Paty's (PNP) National Executive Council (NEC) in January.
This timetable would certainly facilitate Patterson's novel idea of a period of orientation for the prime minister elect. The question is whether a February election would provide enough time for the new Prime Minister to preside over the preparation of the 2006/07 Budget.
For all intents and purposes, the campaign is entering its final phase and the standing of the candidates in the presidential race continues to dominate the political agenda.
We can safely assume that neither Blythe nor Davies will be in serious contention. Blythe has had difficulty building a campaign without a base in the cabinet. Davies, for his part, hardly helps his campaign by limiting the country's possibilities for economic expansion and development to his own experience and within the framework of his past efforts. He simply does not have enough hope in the electorate. More so than ever before, it is a straight contest between Peter Phillips and Portia Simpson Miller.
DECISIVE ACCELERATION
The events of the past fortnight have seen a decisive acceleration by the Peter Phillips campaign team to establish its candidate as the clear front-runner. Not even Portia Simpson Miller's impressive launch could challenge Phillips' presence in the media and on the front line. From here on in, among the delegates, he seems to be the man the other contenders will have to catch, if they can.
Before the elections for the six Regional Executive Councils (REC) held in the week preceding the party's annual conference, Phillips had already consolidated his position among his cabinet colleagues, the parliamentary group and the National Executive Council.
Within the 17-member cabinet, party leader, P.J. Patterson, general secretary, Burchell Whiteman and legal officer, A.J. Nicholson, are all precluded from expressing support for any candidate since that would compromise their role in overseeing the election process. Party chairman, Bobby Pickersgill, has since announced his own decision to remain neutral just in case the chairman is asked to play a mediating role. Of the remaining thirteen, Peter Phillips enjoys the enthusiastic and committed support of Maxine Henry-Wilson, K.D. Knight, Paul Robertson, Horace Dalley and John Junor.
Among the eleven Ministers of State, Phillips' base is even more secure with the endorsement and support of Harry Douglas, Wykeham McNeill, Fenton Ferguson, Noel Monteith, Fitz Jackson, Donald Rhodd and Delano Franklyn. The Cabinet Ministers and Ministers of State form the core of Phillips' parliamentary support, which currently stands at 17 out of 34.
It cannot be stated too often that a prime minister can neither be constitutionally appointed without the support of the parliamentary group, nor continue in office without its confidence. In short, there is no substitute for the support of the parliamentary group, and it is within this critical group that Simpson Miller is weakest. Among her Cabinet colleagues, she only has the support of Roger Clarke and Phillip Paulwell, and among Ministers of State, Errol Ennis.
THE FIGHT FOR DELEGATE SUPPORT
There are those who continue to confuse popular support with delegate support. There is no denying Simpson Miller's popularity among the Jamaican masses. However, as the REC elections in September showed, Phillips' support among the delegates is as 'solid as a rock'. The 3,519 delegates who were eligible to vote in those elections will also be eligible to vote in the presidential elections. In five of the six regions it was the Phillips slate which carried the day and won the majority of the 60 constituency representatives elected to the National Executive Council. Despite Simpson Miller's fine showing in Region Three, which has some 25 per cent of the delegates, Phillips was clearly ahead on an islandwide count.
Then came the PNP annual conference one week later, which confirmed Phillips' standing among the delegates. During the delegates sessions, which occupied the first two days of conference, Phillips' campaign team was able to dominate the proceedings with its numerical strength and enthusiasm. Since conference, the momentum has been maintained.
FROM PARTY TO STATE
Six months ago, supporters of Peter Phillips believed that the Ministry of National Security was such an albatross, that not even his outstanding successes in his previous Cabinet assignments could negate. Against the odds, Phillips has now revived hope within the national community that the war against crime can be won. He is now perceived as tackling Simpson Miller who also has the challenge of heading a ministry responsible for critical services without adequate budgetary support. In her case, however, the silence as to what the electorate can expect is far too deafening.
As the campaign unfolds, it is the Phillips' campaign team which is clearly ahead in both strategic thinking and organisational capacity. He completely stole the spotlight from Simpson Miller's impressive launch with an even more impressive national broadcast, and then went on to dominate the media.
At the private sector 'think tank' held over the last weekend in Montego Bay, Phillips outshone Davies, not just by demonstrating a capacity to deal with his own challenging portfolio, but also in his views on economic growth and job creation.
Then came Sunday, when he met with nearly 100 per cent of the delegates from St. Thomas. At this meeting, they gave a roaring approval to K.D. Knight, Fenton Ferguson and Rodd, who announced their support of Phillips.
By Monday evening, he had not only taken charge of the leadership race, but was being identified by the national community as the man to make a
difference in Jamaica House.
