IN LESS than 10 months, Jamaica will have a new prime minister. The question must therefore be: Who will be prime minister number seven? The fact that our next prime minister will be elected by delegates of the ruling People's National Party (PNP) makes it quite easy to correctly name a successor to the incumbent party leader. There are five candidates who have thrown their hats in the ring; four of the five are extremely confident of victory.
Just under one year ago, I was pretty confident that the race for the PNP presidency was virtually a no-contest, as the leading contender was so far ahead of the rest. However, it is now a very close contest between the two leading contenders, Region 3 Chairman, Dr. Omar Davies, and vice-president, Portia Simpson Miller. You will ask: How did I arrive at such a conclusion? The answer is very clear: data-gathering right across the board, the delegates' response to questions asked; and the numerous calls I have received over the past six months in support of Dr. Omar Davies.
In July 2004, I had predicted Dr. Omar Davies and Robert Pickersgill to be close contenders for the post of Deputy Prime Minister. All this has changed as Dr. Davies has moved from some distance behind the front runner, during the period July 2004-June 2005 to be well positioned coming into the final 50 metres of what seemed to be a 200 metres dash.
STEWARDSHIP UNDER MICROSCOPE
It is interesting to note that the gentleman from St. Andrew South now enjoys strong support among the private sector group which undoubtedly is the engine of growth in any capitalist society such as ours. One who aspires to lead can be assessed by one's stewardship in the climb upwards. A potential leader must have a passion for justice, equality and human freedom, one who unites practical political skills, having a firm grasp of basic principles and a broad vision of the future.
Let us now put the stewardship of Omar Davies under the microscope. He won the South St. Andrew constituency on November 30, 1993 in a by-election, polling 99.8 per cent of the accepted ballots. It was virtually a no-contest, South St. Andrew being among the so-called 'garrison' constituencies. He won with a mind-boggling majority in 1997, polling 14,084 votes to the JLP's Dennis Messias' 1,206 and the late John Causwell's (NDM) 55, an absolute majority of 12,823, 91.8 per cent of the accepted ballots.
FAIR ELECTORAL PROCESS
The General Election of October 16, 2002 saw the dawn of a refulgent era in our electoral process as every Jamaican at home and abroad hailed the workings of the electoral system as free and fair for the first time at last.
See Part II In Monday's paper.
Tony Myers is a statistician/ political analyst.
