Heather Robinson
RECENTLY, I had a very interesting conversation with a Jamaican who was here on holiday from Canada. As expected, the discussion moved to who will succeed P.J. Patterson as the president of the People's National Party (PNP). This Jamaican who has lived abroad for over 10 years, like many other Jamaicans, has strong views of who should succeed Mr. Patterson. This man, who has served many years in the Jamaica Constabulary Force, declared in clear language whom he would be voting for.
At first, I thought that this gentleman had had one too many, as the conversation was taking place at a location that served alcoholic beverages. I asked the gentleman to repeat what he had just said, and he confirmed what I heard earlier. He would be returning to Jamaica whenever Mr. Patterson announces the date for the Special Delegates' Conference to vote for his choice.
This Jamaican, who is not a member of the PNP, moreso a group delegate, genuinely believed that he was going to play a role in determining who would be the next president of the PNP. Eventually, he accepted that he would not be able to participate in deciding who is the PNP's fourth president.
MANLEY'S ANNOUNCEMENT
On Sunday, March 15, 1992, 67-year-old president of the PNP and Prime Minister Michael Manley announced that he would be retiring. The Daily Gleaner of March 16 stated in its lead story 'Manley bows out ... Ending months of speculation': "Michael Norman Manley, the only politician to have served Jamaica as prime minister for three terms in separate regimes, created yet another first yesterday when he announced his intention to resign from office. No other prime minister in the history of independent Jamaica left that office through resignation."
The Gleaner reported Mr. Manley as saying, "I am happy to say there is no pressure on me to go. I still have a very warm and very strong relationship with my political family." Mr. Manley also said, "I have always believed that political leaders must know when to step aside and make room for others. Because of this strongly-held conviction about making room for younger people, I had long ago decided that I would not lead the PNP into the 1994 election."
In November 2005, the speculation continues about when P.J. Patterson will call this Special Delegates' Conference. P.J. Patterson was 55 years old when he was elected. Michael Manley was also 55. When Mr. Patterson retires, he will be nearer to his 71st birthday.
In March of 1992, The Gleaner's Stone poll revealed the following comparisons.
It was only in May 1990 that P.J. Patterson had public popular support. In both February and March of 1992, on the eve of the March 28 presidential elections, Portia Simpson's popularity was twice as much as P.J. Patterson's.
However, the results of the presidential election had Mr. Patterson polling 2,322 votes to Miss Simpson's 756. Like many Jamaicans now, some felt in 1992 that Miss Simpson's popularity among the Jamaican people would ensure her a victory in the PNP. On Saturday, March 28, 1992, The Gleaner's lead story stated 'Miss Simpson is said to have a strong 'grass root' support and because of her image as caring for the poor. A recent Carl Stone Poll has her as the popular choice to be the leader of the PNP by a wide cross-section of Jamaicans. Her supporters in the PNP see her as the only person who can lead the PNP to victory in a general election at this time or in the near future."
History, it is said, knows when to repeat itself. P.J. Patterson is the only Jamaican prime minister to have been elected for three consecutive terms, and is now the country's longest serving prime minister. Perhaps what the polls did not know in 1992, they still do not know or understand.
| Candidate | May | February | March |
| | 1990 | 1992 | 1992 |
| | % supporting choices |
| P.J. Patterson | 39% | 16% | 23% |
| Portia Simpson | 18% | 31% | 50% |
Heather Robinson is a life underwriter and former Member of Parliament.
