Arnold Bertram, ContributorTHE ORGANISATIONAL structure of the People's National Party (PNP) is based on the division of the island into six regions. On Sunday, September 4, the week preceding the Annual Conference, the party delegates gathered in six regional conferences to elect the members of each regional executive council (REC). At these regional elections, the focus of attention is on the six regional chairmen and the 60 constituency representatives who sit on the National Executive Council (NEC) and are considered a vital part of the grass roots leadership.
The 3,519 delegates who were eligible to vote in the regional elections will also vote in the forthcoming presidential elections. Over the past year, they have been canvassed, feted and wooed by the four presidential candidates and their campaign teams. The results of these elections, therefore constitute the best available data on the present level of delegate support enjoyed by Phillips, Simpson Miller, Blythe and Davies as they enter the final stretch in the presidential race.
THE RESULTS OF THE REGIONAL ELECTIONS
For all intents and purposes, the regional elections give a clear signal that voting for the next president of the PNP has already started. The results of these elections allow us to begin the process of subordinating subjective opinions to the logic of data as to who will succeed P.J. Patterson as president of the PNP and prime minister of Jamaica, for data supersedes judgment every time.
Region I, which comprises the parishes of Trelawny and St. Ann, is the smallest region in terms of delegate strength and parliamentary seats. More than two-thirds of its 197 delegates are in the parish of St. Ann. Up to six months ago the region in general, and Trelawny in particular, was Simpson Miller's territory. The results of the elections demonstrate that a change is taking place.
The new regional chairman is a senior member of Simpson Miller's campaign team. However, his victory over the incumbent was assured by the absence of a candidate from the Phillips team. Still Portia's strength in Trelawny is real, as both NEC representatives for the parish are her supporters. St. Ann was a different story. In this parish, three of the four constituency representatives to the NEC support Phillips.
The elections confirmed that Region 2 remains as 'solid as a rock' for Phillips, as the delegates from St. Mary, Portland and St. Thomas elected all seven candidates from the Phillips camp as their constituency representatives to the NEC. In this region, which boasts some 537 delegates from seven constituencies, not even Simpson Miller could get a look in. As was the case in Region 1; Davies and Blythe hardly did more than observe the proceedings.
In the Corporate Area which constitutes Region 3, the Simpson Miller/Davies alliance dominated, with Simpson Miller supporters accounting for 10 of the 15 constituency representatives. The alliance also ensured the success of Davies in retaining chairmanship of the region. The significance of Simpson Miller's strong showing in the Corporate Area is that this region has 15 constituencies and 1,305 delegates. These results evidently stunned the Phillips camp into action. The response was immediate. Their presence was certainly felt in the Central Kingston elections for constituency chairman, as well as in the selection of the candidate for East Rural St. Andrew. In both elections, the Simpson Miller camp had little cause for celebration.
Region 4, which comprises the parishes of St. Catherine and Clarendon, has seen some of the most intense campaigning. The region has the same number of constituencies as the Corporate Area, but only 681 delegates. The elections here showed Phillips ahead with his supporters winning 10 of the 15 constituency-based NEC positions.
Region 5 is comprised of the parishes of Manchester and St. Elizabeth, and boasts some 346 delegates from 8 constituencies. This is where Davies' support in the parliamentary group is strongest. Still, he was unable to make any real impression. The Phillips team came out on top, securing six of the eight constituency representatives to the NEC.
Phillips' victory in Region 6 indicates the level of support he enjoys in the parishes of Westmoreland, St. James and Hanover. This region, which has a total of nine constituencies and 686 delegates saw seven constituencies being represented on the NEC by candidates from the Phillips team. Of the 60 constituency representatives elected to the NEC at the regional level, the Phillips team secured 36. Of the six regional chairmen selected and who also have membership in the NEC, both Phillips and Simpson Miller had two each
WHAT IS THE SIGNIFICANCE OF THESE RESULTS?
While the Phillips camp will be encouraged, they should not read too much into these results. The elections are still some time off, the delegate list is not yet final, and the popular standing of Simpson Miller, particularly in Region 3, cannot be ignored.
The race for the presidency is between Phillips and Simpson Miller. Neither Davies nor Blythe can mount a serious challenge this time around.
BEHIND THE PATTERSON TIMETABLE
P.J. Patterson has finally announced a timetable for his successor to be elected and installed. Those who know Patterson are only too aware that he doesn't waste words, and that he works out a clear methodology for implementation long before speaking.
There are only two NEC meetings for the rest of this year. The first of these takes place today at which the remaining members of the Executive Committee of the party will be elected. It is unlikely that Patterson will use this occasion to announce further details of his departure. That leaves the NEC meeting scheduled for November as the one most likely for announcing the schedule for the succession process, including the date of the special conference. If his successor is to be elected in time to have an impact on the 2006/07 Budget, he/she would have to be installed some time before March when the Budget is finalised.
The other conclusion that can be safely drawn from Patterson's speech at the annual conference is that there will be a short period between the election of his successor as president of the PNP and his/her installation as prime minister. This would allow for the orientation that Patterson clearly sees as critical to the success of the new prime minister. One is tempted to speculate, i.e. draw a temporary conclusion, that Patterson's successor will be elected before the end of January 2006.
LOOKING AHEAD
The meeting of the NEC today, which will elect the Executive Committee, is not likely to bring any surprises. Traditionally, the PNP tends to put aside differences to ensure that capacity and service to the party supersede any other consideration. Still one cannot rule out an orchestrated challenge to Phillips' continued dominance of the centre of the party.
The major challenge facing the new prime minister and president of the PNP will be restoring the unity and cohesion of the party for national elections, and making good on campaign promises to generate hope and confidence. Even as the contenders continue to manage their portfolios to the satisfaction of the public, they will not only need to find time for campaigning, but must prepare to effectively take charge of a new administration. In the context where the voting has already started, time is not on their side.
