Who will take the PM's seat?
published:
Sunday | August 28, 2005
WHEN PRIME Minister P.J. Patterson announced that the 2002 General Election would be the last of his storied political career, it is safe to say that the race to succeed him as President of the People's National Party (PNP) immediately began.Four major contenders in the form of Dr. Peter Phillips, Mrs. Portia Simpson Miller, Dr. Karl Blythe and Dr. Omar Davies have emerged, with each having a realistic chance of the party presidency. Here are the stakes of the race for Jamaica House.
Portia Simpson Miller: arguably the most popular politician in the country and someone who is hell-bent this time on making it all the way to Vale Royal. She was in over her head in that one-sided race against Mr. Patterson in 1992 but has every reason to believe that things will be different this time around.I can't say I am too impressed with her handlers or the type of campaign she has been mounting so far. For someone with her level of popularity, Mrs. Simpson Miller should be out there every day on the road articulating her vision for the country so as to ensure there is not a repeat of 1992. She will again have to overcome questions regarding her competence for the top job but make no mistake about it, Team Portia is no pushover and will not be easily denied.
Will this be the day of reckoning for Portia? Will this finally be her date with destiny?
Whatever happens, Mrs. Simpson Miller will be a determining factor in who gets to sit in the seat of power.
Dr. Peter Phillips: If there is one huge obstacle in the way of Portia becoming Jamaica's first female prime minister, look no further. A very strong party man, Dr. Phillips has managed to secure the backing of most of his parliamentary and ministerial colleagues, a telling reminder that the race to succeed Patterson might be his to lose.Currently in charge of the most challenging ministry in the country the Ministry of National Security Dr. Phillips has been battling hard to keep crime under control, the one thing his handlers see that could prevent him from taking the country into the post-Patterson era.
He was nearly written off as a bona fide challenger several months ago but has rebounded well to be bang in contention going into what could be the final months of the campaign. And with everything pointing to a Peter versus Portia showdown, look for Dr. Phillips to start taking the fight to Mrs. Simpson Miller in that final push to convince delegates as to who is the better of the two. He cannot, however, take the crime situation for granted and will have to do a lot more in terms of convincing the nation that there is indeed a long-term plan to finally rid Jamaica of this monster.
Dr. Omar Davies: The easiest thing would be to say that Dr. Davies has been so badly damaged politically that he has no chance here. Wrong. He has been mounting a quiet campaign where he has been meeting with party delegates to build his case for succession. How effective it has been is difficult to say but one thing is for certain: Dr. Davies has the full backing of big business and as we all are aware, that must count for something, especially in Jamaica today. It must also be remembered that it will be the PNP delegates and not the country who will decide the person to succeed Mr. Patterson and that is where Dr. Davies could be a dangerous contender.Still, however, he has a daunting task and will have to come a lot better to make inroads on the Phillips, Simpson Miller campaigns. What will be really interesting is where Dr. Davies will eventually throw his support if he concludes beyond the shadow of a doubt that he has no chance of winning.
Dr. Karl Blythe: He will not win but will be a major power broker. He could cause some anxious moments for the front runners and could well impact heavily on the outcome of the race. Expect him to form some sort of alliance in the closing stages, especially when he realises that the writing is on the wall as far as his chances go.
