By Junior Rose, Contributor
A section of the Bog Walk gorge in St. Catherine damaged by Hurricane Ivan. - Ricardo Makyn/Staff Photographer
THE PEOPLE'S National Party (PNP) since the start of its winning streak in 1989 has had a history of surviving major crises. The party in the dying moments tends to find the strength to emerge as a victor. However, the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) must have been praying earnestly lately, as Hurricane Ivan could be the long awaited answer to its prayer.
The questions that are important to the PNP as a result of the advent of Ivan are: Could the fourth term trumpet be the last trumpet for the PNP? Or will the PNP survive Ivan? The JLP certainly succumbed to Hurricane Gilbert and has not recovered since. Could this be the fate of the PNP?
ECONOMY GREW
These questions seem quite premature, since Ivan has just passed and general elections are more than a year away. Nevertheless, the JLP lost the 1989 election in a similar way. They lost the Local Government elections and subsequently within one year of Hurricane Gilbert they lost the general election. On the radio programme The Breakfast Club, Opposition Leader Edward Seaga indicated that prior to the 1988 Hurricane Gilbert the economy grew at more than seven per cent and this was drastically reduced to above two per cent after Gilbert.
Furthermore, according to data from the Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ), the inflation rate for 1987, the year prior to Gilbert, was 8.4 per cent. The year of Gilbert, that is, 1988, it increased to 8.5 per cent. Subsequent to Gilbert there was a drastic increase to 17.2 per cent. With respect to the Balance of Payments (BoP), it was evident that Hurricane Gilbert had a far-reaching effect on the level of exports. For 1988, the BoP stood at $US300 million, while in 1989 it was reduced to $US78 million. Hurricane Gilbert also affected our exports as a percentage of GDP.
In 1987, exports were 51.5 per cent, while in 1988 and 1989, exports stood at 47.5 and 46.8 per cent respectively. On the other hand for the years 1987, 1988, and 1989, imports expressed as a percentage of GDP stood at 51.4, 57.4 and 56.3 per cents.
LINGERING IMPACT
Gilbert appears to be more devastating than Ivan. However, the lingering impact of Ivan could have a greater impact on the country. Will the negative economic trends that resulted subsequent to Gilbert recur in the case of Ivan? In 2003, the growth rate was estimated to be 1.9 per cent. If the economic trends of 2003/4 should reflect that of 1988/9 for Hurricane Gilbert, then Jamaica could recede into the oblivion of negative economic growth.
Ivan could therefore frustrate the PNP's target of economic transformation and economic growth. The PNP economic targets in its recent manifesto are as follows:
GDP growth of 2-4 per cent in the medium term and 6 per cent or more in the long term
Reduction of unemployment to 10 per cent or less
A 25 per cent reduction in poverty
Maintaining low inflation at close to 5 per cent
Reduction in debt to GDP ratio to 100 per cent by 2006
Further reduction in interest rate
A 25 per cent increase in international competitiveness
Some of these targets already had a struggling chance of being met before Hurricane Ivan. Hence, the Government may possibly need to revise these macro-economic targets. Although an international rating agency advised against this,
suggesting that it could affect Jamaica's credibility on the international market. The
economic growth was partly
predicated on two major sectors, tourism and bauxite; these
ectors have suffered blows. Prime Minister P.J. Patterson on Monday in a meeting with business leaders, announced that one bauxite shipping port was made completely inoperable and another partially damaged. Furthermore, some hotels have suffered millions of dollars in infrastructural damage, of which some may not recover for the winter tourist season. In fact, some hotel workers have been laid off in the wake of Hurricane Ivan.
PNP CONFERENCE ISSUES
Certainly, there are a number of issues to be addressed at the upcoming PNP national conference; chief among them is the issue of the state of affairs after Hurricane Ivan. The economy has recently been recovering from the illness of economic depression and on the path to growth. However, the impact of the hurricane could thwart this growth.
Currently, people are clamouring for the rudiments of electricity, water, food and shelter. This has resulted in the rise in prices of these essentials, as demand for these basic needs has been outstripping supply. If this continues, the inflation rate will increase, as a result of a sustained increase in prices. This will in effect increase the cost of living as a result of the increased consumer price index. The growth that the country will experience in the next few months, especially in the construction industry, might be nominal growth and not real growth as it could mean large investment in the reconstruction of infrastructure due to Hurricane Ivan, as in the case of Hurricane Gilbert.
Nevertheless, there are some mitigating factors that will soften the blow of Ivan. These are, the early response of the Jamaica Public Service (JPS) in restoring electricity to residential and commercial customers. The target now is mid-October, while after Gilbert electricity was a Christmas present. Additionally, the National Water Commission (NWC) has been working assiduously to ensure that customers have potable water.
Telecommunication did not pose as great a problem during Ivan as it did during Gilbert; hence persons were able to keep in touch with their loved ones. The state of emergency that was declared by the Prime Minister averted greater losses that could have resulted from looting.
PRIVATE SECTOR SUPPORT
The private sector has
indicated support for recovery through the Jamaica hurricane relief fund. This philanthropic gesture will assist tremendously in the recovery effort along with the loan and aid from international organisations.
However, the billions of dollars in damage that occurred in the agricultural, manufacturing and production sectors will take years to recover. The PNP does not have years.
These are some of the harsh realities that the PNP needs to treat with and if it does not stay afloat of the situation then it will sink. The Government has been quite responsive since the start of Hurricane Ivan; this must continue to cushion the effect of this natural disaster.
Junior Rose is the chairman of the Jamaica Union of Tertiary Students. You can send your comments to
infocus@gleanerjm.com
