Robert Buddan
THE CARIBBEAN is a volcanic region, earthquake belt and hurricane zone. Scholars have estimated that between 1722 and 1990, hurricanes have caused 43,000 deaths in the region.
Economic damage between 1960 and 1990 has been estimated at US$3 billion (in 1990 values). Volcanic eruptions have cost over 30,000 lives and earthquakes have killed some 16,000 people since 1691.
Small island states suffer the greatest damage from natural disasters compared to other states. While man and his industries do more harm to the environment in the industrialised countries, the environment does more harm to man and his industries in small island states.
Climate change, particularly global warming, exacerbates the impact of natural disasters. In recognising this, a group of 41 such states formed the Small Island Developing States (SIDS) in 1994. The idea came out of the Rio Conference on the Environment in 1992 which they sought to draw attention to global warming so that polluting countries could take steps to reduce the greenhouse gases they emit into the atmosphere which then destroys the protective ozone layer.
The United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP) recognised the special disadvantage of small island states under conditions of global climate change. It said, "The wider Caribbean region with its many island based economies such as fishing and/or tourism is particularly vulnerable to the physical changes associated with climate change and sea level rise."
BEYOND IVAN:
THE GLOBAL PROBLEM
The problem we face in the Caribbean goes beyond individual hurricanes like Ivan, Gilbert or Charley. It is a problem of global warming. The problem also goes beyond UN scientists and environmental activists. It is a problem for the fisherman, the farmer and the man in the house by the gully.
In 2000, one of our newspapers reported that scientists had warned that in 20 years' time rising sea levels will threaten the Norman Manley and Donald Sangster airports, the hub of our tourism and gateways to the world. Low lying communities, including our largest Portmore and major cities like Montego Bay, would also be under threat.
We well know that scientists have predicted that hurricanes were becoming more frequent and intense. Four years ago, it was noticed that there had been a 40 per cent increase in the number and intensity of hurricanes over the preceding 30 years. Such hurricanes destroy coral reefs that protect beaches and the land from sea surges. Climate change also means more severe droughts that undermine agriculture and water supply.
This hurricane season has already provided testimony to these fears. Ivan has damaged 90 per cent of Grenada's housing stock, and probably half of those in the Cayman Islands. It has destroyed 50 per cent of St. Lucia's banana crop and 20 per cent of St. Vincent's bananas.
As many as nine Caribbean countries have suffered death and damage from Ivan alone and hurricane Jeanne is making its presence felt in Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic and Haiti. These latter two countries had already suffered major floods and over 1,000 deaths a few months ago. Jamaica meanwhile is still tallying up the costs of Ivan. The vulnerability of the region was put into perspective by Prime Minister Patrick Manning on his visit from Trinidad and Tobago when he said that the start-up of the CARICOM Single Market and Economy might be set back by Ivan's impact on CARICOM's economies.
BIG DISASTERS AND
SMALL ECONOMIES
The impact of climate change on Caribbean economies leads to major problems of volatility and vulnerability. Volatility means that economies can suddenly slip from positive to negative growth in a year because of a single hurricane or severe drought as has happened when countries like Dominica, St. Lucia and St. Vincent have lost most of their banana crops from hurricanes. Vulnerability means that small island economies can do little to control their own external environments.
Caribbean societies are extremely sensitive to their natural environments. They are virtually completely dependent on the land, fishing, beaches, and minerals. They have fragile ecosystems and depend on coastal zones and marine environments. But because they are small, they do not have the landmass to modify the oceans in which they exist.
Small islands can, of course, control their internal environments. They can ensure that the air, harbours, and coastal zones are clean, forests and flora and fauna are protected, the soil is preserved and wastes are not dumped to cause contamination. However, even so, this will hardly have an impact on global warming. Global warming requires a global effort.
GLOBAL POLLUTION AND RESPONSIBILITY
It is well established that the overwhelming majority of the world's environmental degradation originates in the rich industrial economies. In fact, developed countries contribute 75 per cent of the harmful gases in the atmosphere and the US produces 25 per cent of all these gases. It is striking that in the very week in which Ivan was unleashing its terror in the Caribbean, the Bush administration was once again being criticised for refusing to abide by the Kyoto Agreement, the major global treaty, designed to reduce the emission of harmful gases into the atmosphere, the gases that cause global warming.
The Kyoto Agreement of 1997 seeks to reduce the emission of harmful gases by eight per cent below the 1990 level and to do so by 2010. These gases are now 15 per cent above 1990 levels. The major polluters are the industrial countries and while Europe is willing to comply, the Bush administration (as distinct from Bill Clinton and John Kerry) stands alone in this neglect of global leadership. The Bush administration simply does not want US corporations to bear the cost of refitting their industries to control these emissions. Here is an example of the influence of corporate money in US politics. Critics point to the Bush family's own connection to the oil industry and the oil and coal industries' lobbying and financial influence over the administration. Corporations don't get to go as far with the Democratic Party as they can with the Republicans. If there was ever an example of how corporate influence over American democracy harms the health of the planet, this is it.
ACCOUNTABILITY AND GOVERNANCE
The world cannot force the US to sign on to the Kyoto Agreement but Americans can hold their government accountable for failing to do so. Americans in Florida and the southern states that share the Caribbean Sea must hold George Bush accountable in the November elections for failing to comply with the Kyoto Agreement, a failure which contributes to their suffering from a series of hurricanes this season.
Hurricane Andrew alone cost Florida's economy some US$20 billion in damage when it struck. Florida and similarly exposed states cannot sustain this kind of damage on a regular basis. Iraq dominates the US elections and there are only occasional and brief references to the Kyoto Agreement. The people of Florida and the southern states must make themselves more aware of climate change as a critical issue and the positions of their candidates on this. Apart from the wind and flood damage from hurricanes, US states suffer from the killer tornadoes that hurricanes spawn.
One report holds that Hurricane Gilbert cost Jamaica one-third of its GDP and Hurricane Hugo cost Montserrat five years GDP. Hurricane Ivan tells us that we must constantly improve our preparedness for and management of natural disasters because, global warming or no global warming, we will have to deal with these disasters in the years to come. But we must push for stronger global governance of environmental issues and get the US to comply with the Kyoto Agreement. The fate of the Caribbean cannot suffer because of corporate influence in American politics.
* Robert Buddan lectures in the Department of Government, UWI, Mona. You can send your comments to robert.buddan@uwimona.edu.jm or infocus@gleanerjm.com
