"ON YOUR marks! Get set!"
The recent poll by Don Anderson has turned my attention to the race for succession in the People's National Party (PNP). Having discussed the Jamaica Labour Party's (JLP) own run-off some weeks ago I must be 'even Stephen.'
Now Anderson as far as polls are concerned is no 'don' and he certainly is no Carl Stone. Never mind though, Anderson is a relatively reputable pollster whose surveys have somewhat approximated the truth. According to his findings the main contenders for P.J.'s crown all have to reckon with the charismatic Portia Simpson Miller. She leads all pretenders and 51.6 per cent of persons polled indicated that "she should replace P.J." and that she has "strong support across all segments of the population."
NATIONAL SUPPORT
Heir-apparent Peter Phillips lags almost 30 percentage points behind her with 21.8 per cent of the national support. Anderson's response options show 'don't know', with 12 per cent in third place. Next comes those who did not have an opinion, with 9.4 per cent. Omar Davies with 5.4 per cent and Karl Blythe with 4.8 are next. Well thankfully, the categories of 'don't know' and 'no opinion' are not running for office so Omar and Blythe are thus, third and fourth.
Despite being exonerated from the allegations about his impropriety, which led to Karl's removal from the Water Ministry, the battle in the arena of public opinion has been lost, so I believe that this has 'Blythed' his prospects. As a politician he knows that people operate on the basis of perception, whether true or not. So in spite of all the water that was under his jurisdiction he will have a great difficulty washing his image unless he can find a way to use a basket to collect water from the healing stream.
Then we have Omar; erudite, comes from a group of brilliant siblings who, among themselves, have more degrees than a Fahrenheit thermometer. But, Omar has never won an election. What? Jungle and Rema? Please!!!. Even if you choose a former NDM candidate and paint him/her in orange s/he "can't lose deh so." He is an incredible optimist, though, not just because he is throwing his hat into the fray but because he actually believes that five per cent is a lot.
EUPHORIA
But why should I be surprised? The prospect of a fractional percentage movement in the economy sends him into euphoria and "im kin puppalick." However, if he manages to kick-start the economy, create some employment and "mek the small man eat a food" then he might pull off a sensational miracle.
Phillips seems to have the support of the inner-sanctuary of the party. I am not sure if he has majority support among the delegates eligible to vote. It is not the general public that votes in the PNP's internal elections. So Anderson might have underestimated the support for Phillips and even very likely measured the wrong phenomenon. The bigger question however, is whether the well-intentioned Phillips can lead the PNP to victory. If he has only 22 per cent of popular support and is only 29 per cent favoured by the middle class will he win? Then he has the leviathan task of collaring the big, black bull called crime which resembles the one at Denbigh that the Prime Minister was struggling with. Peter, I know that you are trying and have enlisted much of the help available. However, the black bull is hard to tame and may lead to 'boasn' (a hernia, not egocentrism). Phillip's chances of succeeding as Prime Minister are linked to his making an impression on the crime epidemic.
Then there is Sister P, very personable and people-friendly, with hugs and kisses for all (too many). In a post-Manley period when most politicians are bland and boring and induce 'ethnic fatigue' (don't call it Niggeritis in Emancipation month), Portia can work up a crowd. However, demagoguery is fine but is useless when serious issues have to be discussed. Her record at the Ministry of Labour and Social Security is reasonable but it was due largely to the 'Irons-clad' support from her senior management and advisory staff. She has done much for the elderly but there are gaps in the labour statutes and, despite her being female, legislative issues regarding women were not fully addressed during her 11 years there. Was it lack of will or did the hierarchy not give her the autonomy? Not much is seen of her work in Tourism, which she held for a short period.
STAR PERFORMER
In Local Government, it is her opposition Mayor who is seen as the star performer. Ironically, what might have been her most outstanding act is the sacrificial stand she took when she faced down her colleagues regarding the allocation to the Fire Brigade. As party president, can she heal the perceived rift which was created when she ran against P.J. in 1993 and get the upper room behind her? Can she even get elected by the eligible PNP delegates? Also, how has she performed in the microcosm of her constituency? What is in store nationally if she wins? Portia has to jump these critical hurdles to convince all.
So in the end we have a set of contenders but only two real candidates (OK Omar, if you can say that the economy is doing well then you certainly have a chance too).
"Jack Mandora mi no choose none".
Dr. Orville Taylor is a lecturer in the Department of Sociology, Psychology and Social Work at UWI, Mona.
