D.K. Duncan WITH THEIR backs against the wall, the People's National Party's (PNP) National Election machinery focused on Braeton. They were successful in encouraging close to 90 per cent of its 2002 General Election voters to return to the polls and vote in their favour. This would suggest that the June 19 turn-off of close to 140,000 PNP voters nationally when compared to 2002, is more passive than active.
On the other hand, the Jamaica Labour Party's (JLP) National Election machine was able to bring out 92 per cent of its 2002 Braeton vote. In the course of doing this, they were able to reduce the PNP's 2002 margin of victory from 20 percentage points to 18 on Thursday, July 17. In essence, the results represent a stand-off between the two major parties with both holding their own when the results are compared to those in the General Election of October, 2002.
While not gaining, the PNP has not lost any points in legitimacy or moral authority as a result of the outcome of this election. Lack of trust continues to be their Achilles heel. One could confidently assume that the JLP, based largely on the results of the June 19 poll, continues to hold a slim but significant lead in national popularity.
VOTER TURNOUT
The combined efforts of the National Election machines of both parties the JLP and the PNP managed to motivate only 42 per cent of the registered voters to turn out last Thursday. This compares to a 50 per cent voter turn-out in the Braeton Division in the 2002 General Election. It must have been extremely frustrating to the campaign teams of both parties coming face to face with this dilemma. Most of the leaders of the parties were personally involved on the ground. Enough of them were present throughout the campaign as well as on Election Day to get a better understanding of this growing group of citizens referred to as the uncommitted.
USING THE EXPERIENCE
The JLP may want to use this experience in its own introspection. The PNP which usually does a full-scale appraisal after each national election will no doubt include the feedback from Braeton in its deliberations.
The academic community with interest in these areas should not allow the opportunity to pass. A wealth of information should reside with the voters, non-voters and campaigners in the recent elections. Importantly, those persons with an interest in the growth of civil society could also benefit from some empirical work arising from the Braeton events.
Public opinion polling organisations if they get into the division early, may be able, with well-crafted questions, to elicit the kind of data capable of better informing ongoing analyses.
FUTURE ELECTIONS
There are no scheduled national elections for at least another three years. The next Local Government elections are normally due in three years mid 2006. The Parliamentary Elections are not due until 2007. The frequency of published political polling seems to be on the decline. By-elections divisional or constituency planned or unplanned may be increasingly used as tools to assess the political climate over the next four years.
FUTURE LEADERS
The Prime Minister has made and continues to make it clear that he will not lead his party into another General Election. He has, however cautioned prospective successors that, at the moment, there is no vacancy. The 65th annual conference of the PNP expected to be held in September, 2003 should give some indication as to the viability of present contenders. These include three vice-presidents National Security Minister, Peter Phillips, Minister for Local Government, Portia Simpson Miller, as well as former Minister, Karl Blythe. Finance Minister, Omar Davies, has a lot of catching up to do in light of recent events. If he can hang on to his portfolio while delivering a dramatic turnaround in the economy, he may yet resurface. For the moment, the front runners are Phillips and Simpson Miller, both with challenging ministerial portfolios. Succession planning is in place.
The position of the JLP Leader is less certain. He seems to be operating on the assumption that the economy is so fragile that he will be asked, before long, by the people to become Prime Minister before the present five-year term is completed. On the other hand, some feel that if there is succession planning, only the JLP Leader knows the plan. Audley Shaw, Ed Bartlett, Bruce Golding and Pearnel Charles are the names most commonly discussed, as contenders.
A JLP conference if held during this, its 60th year of existence, may provide some information in this regard. One Love, One Heart.
A dental surgeon, Dr. D.K. Duncan is a former General Secretary and Government Minister in the PNP administration of the 1970s.
