By V Lloyd Simpson, Freelance WriterMY SHORT list after an indepth assessment of the various competing credentials of the 16 contenders involved projects A KING IS BORN, REAR ADMIRAL, HERECOMESFUDGIE and PITTACUS as the quartet likely to construct the frame of Saturday's Red Stripe Jamaica Derby to be run at Caymanas Park.
And since each of the first six finishers in the event will be entitled to a share of the enormous purse, it may be useful to mention those two other contenders likely to take a share. They are the fillies THEIA and NAUGHTY BY NATURE, winner of the Jamaica Oaks.
Starting with chances from the bottom up, there are doubts that NAUGHTY BY NATURE could pierce the suggested frame having been withdrawn from the prep undertaken by The King on May 24.
Although she was incapacitated due to lameness, the time of 2.11.4 for 2000 metres which she returned in the Oaks was far too moderate to give rise to any assessment that could place her in the same company with any of the four.
IMPROVED LEAPS AND BOUNDS
THEIA is a contender who will be in the thick of things on Saturday. Trained by Percival Hussey, (a half-sister to the legendary Eros, both being out of the mare Resop) she has improved leaps and bounds since her debut on November 15, and based on current exercise reports, she is working exceptionally well.
She has not had an extensive career, but in her five outings to date, she has come away with two victories, returning the impressive time of 1.33.2 for 1500 metres and that compares well with the similar time of 1.33.2 which The King turned in on May 24 ahead of HOOKED ON JAZZ by four lengths.
She also turned in 1.58.1 over the circular nine course on May 28 while LEAVING SHE'S A RANKINE behind. She could very well finish ahead of Fudgie, the Governor's Cup winner, in the Derby and more so PITTACUS the runner-up.
PITTACUS has been included in the top four because of his stirring second place effort to Fudgie in the Governor's Cup. I have treated him leniently because of the weight difference of 56.0 kg imposed on him in the event. Fudgie toted the postage stamp weight of 48.5 kg while PITTACUS, his runner-up toted 56.0kg. Weight difference would come into play on Saturday in the Derby in favour of PITTACUS.
Turning next to the chances of HERECOMESFUDGIE who is third on my short list, I have considerable reservations about his victory in the event, however much he may be doing the rounds as a contender who could finish ahead of his stable mate The King.
Of the two top guns, The King and The Admiral, the latter should be home and dried before The King on the big day. The Admiral was beaten by The King by a mere 3/4 length running on strongly in the 2000 Guineas. As the bigger stayer of the three-year-old clan, he should finish the job on Saturday.
Keep your eyes on the staying filly Theia (Eros half-sister). She is loaded with stamina, potential and an abundance of competitive know-how.
