Lisa McGregorAFTER THE failed coup d'etat against President Hugo Chavez of Venezuela in April 2002, tension between the opposition parties and the government rose dramatically. By late October, several opposition leaders and supporters (many of which had participated in the failed coup) and supporters set up "camp" in the Altamira Plaza of Caracas, declaring it a "liberated zone". From there, they have been waging their anti-Chavez campaign through speeches and protests. In response, many Chavez supporters set up camp at the Plaza Bolivar on the other side of town.
POPULAR REFERENDUM
Throughout his so-called Bolivarian Revolution, one of President Chavez's favourite tools has been the popular referendum, which is provided for in the new constitution. The opposition parties, working together under the Democratic Co-ordinator, collected 1.2 million signatures, which represents 10 per cent of the population, on a petition to demand a referendum on President Chavez's rule. In response, the government changed the law that allows the members of the National Election Council (NEC), who served in the previous election, to remain in office until the National Assembly appoints new members. This blocked the petition going any further, as the NEC is the body that must verify the signatures on such petitions. With no sitting members, the petition could not be processed.
This forced the opposition to make its next move, which was to organise a national strike. The date was set for December 2, 2002, and the purpose of the strike was to bring the Chavez government "to its knees" and force an early general election. The managers and union leaders of the Venezuelan Petroleum Corporation (PDVSA), decided to join the strike on December 6, and stated that they would maintain the strike until President Chavez resigned.
Venezuela is the world's fifth largest producer of oil, producing 2.5 million barrels of crude per day, which accounts for about 70 per cent of its export revenue. The US imports 1.5 million barrels of Venezuelan oil daily. It was, therefore, believed that with the PDVSA out of production, the government's cash flow would dry up, foreign exchange reserves would plunge, fuel supplies would be exhausted within a week, and the country would be paralysed making it impossible for the government to continue in office.
In the end, however, the strikers' aims were not reached. The strike lasted over two months, but the wily President Chavez, despite the problems, managed to retain power.
But the strike did bring the Venezuelan economy to its knees.
A DOWNWARD PATTERN
The economy had been on a downward pattern even before the strike, despite the fact that the country had been enjoying good oil prices on the world market. After the strike, the economy had shrunk by about 17 per cent, the bolivar devalued by 25 per cent, foreign reserves were depleted by about 25 per cent, the government spent over US$500 million on fuel imports, many businesses were forced to close, and thousands of persons lost their jobs putting unemployment figures up to 25 per cent. Still, throughout it all, President Chavez maintained a core approval rating of 30 per cent.
Despite the gravity of the situation in Venezuela, the possible war with Iraq was on the forefront of the US international agenda, and for a while, the Venezuelan problem was virtually ignored. As the US had been accused of lending support to the plotters of the failed coup in April, they were reluctant to get involved.
Cesar Gaviria, Secretary-General of the Organisation of American States (OAS), had been attempting to mediate the crisis to no avail. Then at the end of January, the Group of Friends was formed. This group, led by former US President Jimmy Carter, comprised representatives from the US, Brazil, Mexico, Chile, Spain and Portugal. The group has been trying to negotiate a solution for the Venezuelan impasse, and have managed to bring the Democratic Co-ordinator and the government to the table.
The Group of Friends brought forth two proposals:
to amend the constitution in order to cut the presidential term from six to four years so that new elections could be held in 2003; or
hold a presidential recall referendum in mid-August, as provided by the constitution, to determine whether new elections should be held. The opposition parties preferred the first option, but the President refused to entertain it, so the second option is the more viable. The Group of Friends have got President Chavez to agree to invite international observers for the referendum vote, but still, no formal agreement has yet been reached between the government and the opposition.
In the meanwhile, President Chavez has lost no time shoring up his position. He put price controls on about 40 basic food items, and intends to fix utility and rental rates. He has enacted strict foreign exchange controls, setting the rate of 1,850 bolivars to $US1, and set up a Foreign Exchange Management Committee that will decide to whom and for what foreign exchange is sold. Under this new regime, foreign exchange-related crimes carry a jail time of 10 to 14 years; still, the black market for dollars is already in full swing. The President has also proposed a Content Law, aimed at curbing the media's ability to speak out against the government. And the government has changed the structure of the PDVSA so that the (newly elected) board will have to report to the new National Oil Council, of which President Chavez himself will be the head.
Venezuela is a country that has been richly blessed with oil. Due to a history of political instability, corruption and dictatorships, it is still an underdeveloped country. Therefore, it is easy to see why the Venezuelan people, tired of corruption and the inability of the governments formed by the traditional political parties to address the needs of the masses, gave Chavez a landslide victory at the polls. The image he portrayed was that of the defender of the poor and the architect of a new Venezuela. The people wanted a change, and they elected the person who they felt would give it to them much like the promise of Michael Manley in Jamaica in the 1970s. President Chavez has still managed to hang on to the support of many of the poor majority, who feel that the traditional parties merely want to regain power for the benefit of the elite.
In hindsight, the opposition must realise that they should have used the time prior to August 2003 to consolidate power and rally the masses in preparation for the constitutionally provided presidential recall referendum. But herein lies the problem. Despite coming together for the strike under the Democratic Co-ordinator, the opposition parties are still splintered, riddled with infighting, and have been unable to either form a coalition that could wrest power from President Chavez at the polls, or offer the Venezuelan people a better alternative. August is now a mere five months away. Unless the opposition is able to get its act together, and through the Group of Friends reach a solid agreement with the government for the referendum to be held, President Chavez may just find himself still in power for the second half of his term.
Lisa McGregor is an occasional contributor who writes on Inter-American issues.
