Dr. Paul Ashley, ContributorThe elections are over. The People's National Party (PNP) has been decisive in its victory. The PNP has won!!
No amount of spin can change that raw fact. Don't bother with the sugar coating. Thirty-five to 25 is a "buss-ass" the fourth time round. That result would have been acceptable to Labourites in 1997, but it is totally unacceptable in 2002.
Don't bother with the view that Jamaica has lost. It is the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) that has lost.
Then there is the view that Jamaica/"the people" have won. That the result will effect a balance of power in the Parliament now that there are more numbers in the Opposition.
Hello! Hello! By what alchemy, will mere bodies change the effectiveness of the existing arrangements, which are systematically skewed in favour of the majority?
BELLY-ACHING
Forget the excuse of rain. Is it only Labourites who are like puss 'fraid a rain? "Showers" may have been a blessing.
The pollsters based their projections on a voter turnout of 74-75 per cent. Normally, high voter turnouts do not favour the incumbent.
So if the incumbent PNP was enjoying a lead of between four and nine per cent with a projected high voter turnout, then one shudders to think what would have been the result if it was a sunny day.
Excuses, rationales, analyses and hindsight are being exhausted by the losers:
Doom and gloom again;
The stupidity of Jamaicans;
People love the pain;
Dem buy dem out;
The race card;
Demonisation of Seaga;
Late re-entry of Golding;
Corrupt utilisation of
public funds;
The central and eastern dons;
The Adams-led Crime Management Unit;
The party hacks in the media;
PNP-FM;
Young inexperienced candidates;
The latest Stone Poll.
WHEEL & COME AGAIN
Change: Pain to Gain was the main title of the JLP's manifesto. Nationally, the people refused to change.
The effect on the future levels of pain and the resultant gain will no doubt be the subject of analysis. The relationship between pain, change and gain may also be applicable to the JLP itself.
This loss could be interpreted as a failure by the JLP itself to convince the electorate that the JLP has undergone significant changes in its internal organisation.
The PNP targeted this Achilles heel of the JLP (one-man band; one Don; Samuda's mouth; Golding's disclosure on Impact).
The JLP is a national institution that is entrenched in the Jamaican political system. It has survived landslide defeats.
Thirteen years in the political wilderness is dread; nineteen is deadly. Some Labourites have voiced the view that the party is unlikely to weather 19 years of PNP rule.
The strategy must involve re-building the party within six months and force the PNP into an election within two years. In sum, more pain and more change in the hope of securing the desired gain.
CHANGE & PAIN
Some potential areas for change enjoy high profile. For example:
The Senate - For a start, wipe the entire slate clean; only one sure appointee: Golding - symbol of constitutional and systemic change; other appointees made on the understanding that they have only two years and their contributions must resonate with the public.
The annual conference Indications have to be given that there is a sense of urgency and a mission. The old soldiers have fought a good fight; but they are tired. Changes have to be made and the resulting pain endured.
The experiment of the four regional deputy leaders has to be re-assessed. Branch structures are in need of pruning and grafting. Light by candles must be replaced by electricity and even solar energy.
Other areas are behind green walls. Again, more changes and more pain in the short run.
Example, management of internal conflict, candidate selection and the decision making cabal. The idea of term limits has a special applicability: any candidate suffering two or more losses being replaced immediately.
Whatever the changes, they must be informed not only by a sense of purpose but a realisation that politics today shares some characteristics with hire purchase schemes, namely:
See what you are paying for - Tangible benefits enjoyed during payment;
Both parties buying into the plan - The fact that close to 48 per cent of the electorate did not bother to vote is a clear indication that attention needs to be paid to the marketing of the product and the vote-getting machinery of the party.
ON SEAGA
It is quite glib to blame everything on Seaga. If the result had been otherwise, Seaga would have been better than hot sliced hard-dough bread.
Politically, Seaga's future is in the past. Seaga knows it, but Seaga's departure has to be finessed.
The crux of the issue is the lasting effect of Seaga's imprimatur on the party. Seaga has had a more intense and sustained influence on the JLP than its founder, Sir Alexander Bustamante.
Interestingly, the analysis of Seaga's imminent departure would be incomplete (and incorrect) without some consideration of the future role of Tivoli.
PAIN + CHANGE = GAIN
Add five years to the respective ages of the members of the new Parliament and you will have some indication of the ones who will not be contesting the next general election, normally scheduled every five years. In the first-past-the-post system, it is frustrating to be consistently winning your seat but never being part of Government.
Whether the change brings about the desired gain, only time will tell. What is beyond dispute is that the change is necessary and urgent.
That change will engender more pain is inevitable, inescapable, and (cynics will add) desirable.
For lamenting Labourites, the charge of the leader in the preface of the 2002 manifesto rings true not only to the nation, but also to the party itself.
"Let us proceed, therefore, to set our sights not only on pieces of the picture, but on the picture as a whole. It is time now to set our course on the right path and relentlessly pursue our goals to build a nation (read party) in full and not in part..."
There is work to be done. Not change for change sake; not change for pain; but change for gain.
