D.K. Duncan THE RECENT publication of the Party Standings in the August 17/18, 2002 Observer/Stone Polls confirm that the stage is still set for a photo finish as the countdown continues to the mid-October parliamentary General Election.
A study of the August Stone Polls as well as Stone polling data over 26 years of political polling reveals an interesting insight. This insight confirms the difficulty in predicting the outcome of the elections at this time. This is against the background of the party preferences indicated so far.
The August Stone Poll finds a relatively high combined figure of 74 per cent of those registered indicating a party preference (JLP - 34 per cent, PNP - 38 per cent, NDM/NJA - 0.2 per cent, UPP - 2 per cent). This represents a dramatic increase from the 57 per cent who stated their preference in the end of June Stone poll.
The question now is, will the 74 per cent who have expressed their party preference vote on Election Day?
The study of Stone polling trends say NO.
THE INSIGHT
Over the period including the last three General Election, polling trends indicate that less people turn out on Election Day than those who express their intentions to vote. This trend is observed when people express their intentions one month before the Election Day.
This is in contrast to the period including the 1976 and 1980 General Elections for which there is equivalent polling data. In these cases, the intention to vote as expressed in the month before the election date corresponded to actual voting behaviour on the day itself. This is shown in Graph 1.
In the February, 1989 General Election, 34 per cent did not vote - showing no party preference - the uncommitted. The Stone Poll in January, 1989 - one month before this General Election - showed the uncommitted at 23 per cent.
The equivalent figure for the March, 1993 elections was 50 per cent uncommitted. One month before, in February, the Stone Poll figures showed 38 per cent uncommitted.
For the December, 1997 elections, 52 per cent did not vote - the actual uncommitted. The Stone Poll, one month before in November - projected 38 per cent.
Table 1 also shows that, in contrast, expressed preferences one month prior to the 1976 and 1980 General Elections was equivalent or close to actual uncommitted recorded in those elections.
If the trend of the last three elections holds, there should be a higher level of uncommitted on Election Day. The September polls will tell us the figure for the uncommitted still existing one month prior to the 2002 General Election anticipated for the third week in October.
Using the August Stone figure of a 74 per cent potential turnout, and therefore a potential 26 per cent uncommitted as a predictor, the statistical trend indicates the uncommitted will actually increase to 38 per cent on Election Day - see Graph 1 and Table 1.
Therefore, only 62 per cent of those registered will actually vote on Election Day. This would mean that 12 per cent who stated a party preference in August, and therefore an intention to vote, will NOT actually vote on Election Day in October, 2002.
Some important questions then arise:
1. For which party do those voters who make up this 12 per cent intend to vote?
2. Can they be mobilised to vote on Election Day and therefore reverse the 1989-1997 trend?
IMPLICATIONS
Bearing in mind the narrow lead of 4 per cent by the PNP over the JLP in the Party Standings - if this 12 per cent represents mostly PNP votes and they do not vote on Election Day, then the election goes to the JLP.
On the other hand, if the converse is true - and a significant majority of the 12 per cent of registered voters belong to the JLP and don't vote - then the election goes to the PNP.
It will take some doing for the political parties to mobilise the 12 per cent of the registered voters who have their preference but are not likely to vote.
One love, One heart.
Former PNP General Secretary and Government Minister in the PNP administration of the 1970s, Dr. Duncan, a dental surgeon recently established the D.K. Duncan Political Institute. E-mail: dktruth@hotmal.com
