Will China become a democracy?

John Rapley - Foreign Focus

IN HIS classic Social Origins of Dictatorship and Democracy, Barrington Moore argued that capitalism gave rise to liberal democracy. As the number of people in society with private material interests to defend multiplied, so too would the calls for limits on the power of the state. And as the state was rolled back, the sphere of personal autonomy grew larger, and liberal democracy as we know it came into being.

A good many China-watchers have dusted off this theory in recent years as they speculate where economic reform might one day lead the 'Middle Kingdom.'

On the face of it, China shows no signs of moving towards democracy. The ruling Communist Party eschewed the Russian road, in which political and economic reforms were introduced simultaneously,

resulting in the break-up of the Soviet Union. Instead, Beijing's rulers tightened their hold on political power as they loosened their grip on the economy. Those who mistakenly thought that one would lead to the other suffered the rude shock of Tiananmen Square.

Besides, the connection between capitalism and democracy is ambiguous. Many historians point out that while capitalists pushed for liberalism, they were reluctant to concede the vote to the masses. But as industrial growth led to urbanisation, cities teemed with working classes who were easy to organise, and the popular cry for suffrage became irresistible.

Today, as well, many scholars point out that businesspeople are often ready to support autocratic governments, provided they defend their interests. Research on the Chinese business community seems to confirm this. The rapidly-emerging Chinese business class appears more interested in networking with Communist Party officials than in agitating for the vote. So any hopes that economic reforms will lead to an unravelling of the communist regime seem ill-placed.

Nonetheless, there are signs that its seemingly absolute power is beginning to wane. First of all, the Chinese Communist Party is not only a political player, but an economic one. It maintains a vast network of enterprises, through which it has bought the loyalty of citizens with jobs and other perks.

However, among the reforms under way is the privatisation of many of these firms. As these firms enter the private sector, not only does the Communist Party lose some of its patronage powers, but the newly-privatised firms are often restructured. As a result, layoffs augment. Unemployed workers must then find ways to generate their own income. Many have set up their own small businesses.

As they do so, the state goes from being a patron to something of an adversary, taxing their profits and regulating their affairs. In other words, reform is generating a social class which has an interest in limiting the powers of the state.

To date, though, this has produced little in the way of social ferment, as the Communist Party's hold on urban political machines has remained strong. All the same, though, it is waning, particularly as the Party's diminished patronage power has thinned the ranks of new recruits looking for employment opportunities.

In the countryside, though, it has been a different matter. The dynamics are similar, but of late China's traditional regionalism has begun asserting itself once again, allowing for more freedom of political expression against central power. Peasants who were once paid fixed prices for their goods are now left to bargain on a competitive market. Sometimes this works to their advantage, sometimes not. But the key upshot is that peasants no longer depend on the state for their well-being. Freed from their dependence on the Communist Party elite, they have started to clamour for the right to select their own governors. And, on occasion, they have scored victories.

The progress of rural democracy is being watched closely in Beijing. As the Party prepares for its upcoming Congress, some delegates are saying that it will have to reinvent itself if it is to retain its hold on power. With membership down and the Party's power diminishing, liberals are saying what is needed is for the Party to broaden its base and open up to some democratic change.

Needless to say, the old guard is cautious. And it is not obvious that China will simply turn into a Western-style democracy. But the times are changing, and so too is Chinese communism.

John Rapley is a Senior Lecturer in the Department of Government, UWI, Mona.

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