IT SEEMS very likely that Edmund Bartlett, the veteran JLP politician, will once again be an occupant of Gordon House by defeating his PNP opponent in a close contest in St. James East Central.
By the Constituencies (Boundaries) Order 1976 made by the Governor-General under Section 67 of the Constitution and which came into operation on November, 24, 1976, the number of constituencies was increased from 53 to 60.
The parish of St. James was granted one more seat moving from three constituencies to four. The constituency boundaries were redrawn and renamed as follows - St. James East Central, St. James North Western, St. James West Central and St. James Southern.
The constituency of St. James East Central is bounded by the following:
From a point on the seacoast at Running Gut opposite the junction of parochial road No. 9, Rose Hall, and the main road, southerly along this road to where it meets parochial road No. 34, Rose Hall, then southerly along parochial road No. 34 Rose Hall to where it meets parochial road No. 4 Marley, southerly along parochial road No. 4 Marley through Blue Hole, Moreland and Leogan.
From there it goes to the northern boundary of Kirkpatrick Hall where it meets Timber Road, south westerly along Timber Road to where it meets the Adelphi main road, westerly along the Adelphi main road to where it meets parochial road No. 21 St. James, and southerly along this road to its junction with the Johns Hall main road. It then travels south easterly along this main road to where it meets parochial road No. 21 Springfield, easterly along this road to the Retirement boundary, then southerly and westerly along this boundary to where it meets parochial road No. 15. Then it goes northerly along this road to where it meets parochial road No. 33 Springfield, southerly along this road to its intersection with parochial road No. 18 Montpelier.
It then goes north westerly along this parochial road to where it meets parochial road No. 7 Montpelier at Roehampton Cross Roads, then south easterly along this road to a track at the Mafoota River, easterly along this track to where it meets parochial road No. 17 Springfield. It then goes northerly along this road to where it meets parochial road No. 18 Springfield, then north easterly along this road to road No. 76 Springfield, northerly along this road to where it meets the Welcome Hall-Mount Horeb main road. Then it travels southerly along this main road to where it meets parochial road No. 45 Springfield, and along this road to where it meets the Sunderland main road at Stapleton. It then goes northerly along this main road to where it meets the Amity Hall main road to a track leading through Mount Parnassus to the western boundary of Bowlands, and along this boundary to a track in Castle Wheymss. It then travels easterly and southerly along this track to the northern boundary of Chatsworth, then along this boundary to the Springvale main road to the St. James-Trelawny parish boundary, and northerly along this parish boundary to the seacoast to the starting point at Running Gut.
Of the five contested parliamentary general elections (PNP/JLP) in St. James East Central, the JLP won in 1976 and 1980 and the PNP in 1989, 1993 and 1997. With the exception of the JLP's Winston Spaulding's 2,842 majority over Edgar Watson (PNP) in 1980, the contests have been extremely close between the PNP and the JLP.
In 1976 when the PNP was returned to power with 47 of the 60 seats, Dr. Herbert Eldemire won the seat for the JLP with a 288 majority, quite a remarkable feat, as the PNP had victories in the other three constituencies ranging from a 1,688 majority in Southern, 2,803 in North Western to 2,983 in West Central.
In 1989 Violet Neilson, PNP, polled 5,646 votes to defeat by 1,048 Godfrey Dyer, JLP, who polled 4,598 votes. This majority was considerably reduced in 1993 when she polled 4,545 to 4,215 for her old rival Godfrey Dyer, a majority of 330.
In 1997 Violet Neilson defeated "the man from the east" Edmund Bartlett of St. Andrew Eastern by polling 5,851 votes to 5,152 for the former JLP general secretary and now deputy leader, a majority of 699. Robert Russell, the NDM candidate, polled a mere 435 votes. The incumbent Violet Neilson having had three consecutive victories 1989, 1993 and 1997 has passed the baton to Donald Calomathi, the Councillor for the Spring Mount Electoral Division.
The current voters' list (when this was written) shows a 7.6 per cent (1,249) increase in registration over the 1997 list. The fact that the JLP now enjoys a significantly high level of support among the young voters in this constituency, it seems very likely that the veteran politician, Edmund Bartlett will once again ascend the chambers of Gordon House by defeating his PNP opponent in a close contest.
GENERAL ELECTIONS
(SUMMARY 1976 - 1997)
ST. JAMES EAST CENTRAL
1976
E/L
10,821
B/C
9,366
A/B
9,304
R/B
62
Herbert Eldemire
JLP
4,796
Edgar Watson
PNP
4,508
1980
E/L
11,613
B/C
10,396
A/B
10,324
R/B
72
Winston A. Spaulding
JLP
6,583
Edgar Watson
PNP
3,741
1983
E/L
11,613
B/C
3,689
A/B
3,648
R/B
41
Matelan Dawkins
IND
445
Geoffrey C. Roach
JLP
3,203
1989
E/L
13,054
B/C
10,280
A/B
10,244
R/B
36
Godfrey G. Dyer
JLP
4,598
Violet A. Neilson
PNP
5,646
1993
E/L
12,813
B/C
8,803
A/B
8,760
R/B
43
Godfrey G. Dyer
JLP
4,215
Violet A. Neilson
PNP
4,545
1997
E/L
16,443
B/C 11,512 (70%)
A/B
11,438 (99.4%)
R/B
74 ( 0.6%)
Violet Neilson
PNP
5,851 (51.2%)
Edmund Bartlett
JLP
5,152 (45%)
Robert Russell
NDM
435 ( 3.8%)
GENERAL ELECTION (PARLIAMENTARY) - PROJECTION 2002
E/L 17,692
A/B 11,997 (67.8%)
PNP 5,924 (49.4%)
JLP 6,073 (50.6%)
Majority (JLP) 149
NOTE: E/L: Electors on List
B/C: Ballots Cast
A/B: Accepted Ballots
R/B: Rejected Ballots
Anthony Myers is a statistician and political analyst who has done work for the Electoral Office of Jamaica and for the People's National Party.
