D.K. Duncan THE PEOPLES' National Party (PNP) faces two critical hurdles if it plans to call early elections i.e. before May 31, 2002.
First, the most recent national Stone Poll completed late March shows the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) increasing its lead in the public opinion polls from 4 per cent in the February polls to 6 per cent. Excluding the uncommitted voters, this translates to a 11 per cent lead for the JLP if elections were called now. (See Tables 1 and 2).
Second, the enumeration for persons wanting to be on the May 31, 2002 voters' list had its cut-off date on Saturday, March 30. It is anticipated that approximately 30,000 voters will be added to the latest list (September 30, 2001) - making the total number of eligible voters close to 1.3 million. This list, however, will not be ready before May 31, 2002. Prime Minister Patterson might take the view that it would be unwise to disenfranchise these additional 30,000 voters by calling an election before May 31st.
The major hurdle for the Prime Minister, however, is timing. Timing is essentially a function of the ability to win. The latest party standings are not encouraging for him.
An analysis of polling and voting trends over the preceding five contested General Elections (1976 - 1997) support an interesting observation made by Carl Stone some time ago, i.e. most Jamaican voters make up their minds months before a general election is called.
The analysis reveals that any party which has won those five elections has led and maintained its lead in the polls for at least five months prior to election day. More often than not, this has been for a period of more than 20 months. For the Decem-ber 1976 elections, this period of sustained lead in the polls lasted five months from August 1976 to December 1976. For the October 1980 elections, it was 30 months - June 1978 to October, 1980. It was even longer for the February 1989 elections December 1983 to January 1989 a period of 60 months. In the case of the March 1993 general elections, the period lasted from October 1992 to March 1993 five months. Finally, in the December 1997 elections, the victorious Party led and maintained its lead in the polls for 21 months March 1996 to December 1997. It would be interesting to see if this trend holds for the 2002 elections. The Jamaica Labour Party has maintained its lead in the polls since November 2000 - a period of 16 months. (See Table 1)
It should be noted that August, 1976 was the first recorded time ever that Carl Stone did polling in relation to general elections. This explains the short five-month period (August to December, 1976).
The October 1992 to March 1993 five-month period represents a dramatic turn around in polling response which followed the resignation of Prime Minister Michael Manley and his replacement by the new president of the PNP, P.J. Patterson.
It also coincided with the JLP's infamous 'Gang of Five' episode. For the 2002 elections all the contesting parties have their work cut out for them.
An analysis of the details of the February 2002 Stone Polls reveal the following tendencies in relation to age, gender, class and geography. AGE
Voters in the 20-39 age group are tending more towards the JLP. Those in the over 60 age group tend more towards the PNP. The other age groupings tend equally toward either party. The largest non-voting category is students.
GENDER
Women are tending more towards the JLP while men share their votes equally. CLASS (by Occupational Groupings)
Factory workers, artisans, clerical and service workers, vendors, shopkeepers tend to the JLP. State employees police, teachers and nurses as well as household helpers and labourers show a preference for the PNP. The grouping of white collar workers show majority support for the JLP as well as those in the technical/computer category.
GEOGRAPHY
The parties share support in the rural areas while there is significant support for the JLP in parish capitals. Within the margin of error, support is shared in the Kingston Metropolitan Area as well as in small towns.
SEAT STANDINGS
Based on the latest March Stone Poll, the seat standings would be JLP 25, PNP 22 with 13 marginal seats. The polls show a 15 per cent decrease in the PNP support and a 13 per cent increase for the JLP when compared to the 1997 general election results. (See Table 2) Using the percentage margins of victory by the PNP in the last elections as well as the national swing, the results of an election, if they were called NOW would be JLP 33 seats; PNP 27 seats.
Critical to the outcome is the high percentage of voters in the two categories "Don't know" and "Won't say". They add up to 24 per cent of those registered or approximately 300,000 voters. In addition, the 30,000 voters likely to be added to the May 31, 2002 voters' list represent persons who probably will vote and make a difference to the outcome of the next elections. One Love, One Heart.
Former General Secretary and Government Minister in the PNP Administration of the 1970s, Dr. Duncan - a dental surgeon recently established "The D.K. Duncan Political Institute". Email: dktruth@hotmail.com
