Lisa McGregorTHE FIRST round of the presidential elections in Peru on April 8 marked the end of the 'Fujimorist' era in that country. That era began in 1992 when the little known son of Japanese immigrants, Alberto Fujimori, won the Presidential elections by a landslide. He defeated incumbent Alan Garcia, of the traditionally powerful APRA party, who had left the Peruvian economy in shambles.
Shortly after being elected, President Fujimori staged a self-coup and ruled the country as a dictator. During this time he was able to curb the country's hyperinflation, fuel economic growth, and greatly reduce guerrilla activities in the country. International pressure eventually forced Fujimori to hold free elections, and he was re-elected for a second term.
He then changed the constitution to be able to run for a third term in 2000, and won under dubious conditions. He was soon, however, to meet his Waterloo.
Last year, Congressman Fernando Oliveira uncovered and released videotape that showed Fujimori's head of the National Intelligence Service, Vladimiro Montesinos, bribing an opposition Congressman. This led to the unveiling of Montesinos' high levels of corruption, after which, he fled the country. President Fujimori originally stayed on, announcing that he would call new elections in July 2001; but then, on a state visit to the Far East he sought exile in Japan. An interim government was quickly formed in Peru, and Fujimori was charged with corruption in absentia. The new Presidential race then began.
Although there were eight Presidential contenders, the three front-runners were Alejandro Toledo of the Peru Possible Party who ran against Fujimori in the last elections; Lourdes Flores an ex-Congresswoman of the Unidad Nacional Party, and former president Alan Garcia, who returned from exile (avoiding corruption charges placed on him by the Fujimori government) in January. The campaign was characterised by mud-slinging, and calls for the re-democratisation of Peru and the bringing to justice of Fujimori and Montesinos.
Polls held up to two weeks before the first round of elections showed Toledo in the lead, followed by Flores with Garcia close behind. But in the end, Toledo garnered 33 per cent of the votes, Garcia 24 per cent, and Flores 22 per cent. As no candidate won an outright majority, there will have to be a run-off election this month between the top two contenders, Toledo and Garcia.
The fact that Garcia made it to the second round has made financial markets nervous. Apart from having ruined the Peruvian economy during his 1985-1990 Presidential term, Garcia has apparently not changed his philosophies much. He campaigned on populist themes, with an emphasis on job creation and government subsidies. Since qualifying for the second round, however, he has tried to assuage investors' fears by stating that he would not impose exchange rate controls and would maintain an independent federal reserve bank. Still, he has refused to confirm that he would not halt payments on Peru's US$20 billion foreign debt, as he did during his Presidency.
Toledo is of mostly Amerindian ancestry unlike most of his opponents who are of predominantly Spanish ancestry like the majority of Peruvians, and has used this to his benefit during the campaign. Although he was originally considered a shoo-in after helping to chase Fujimori out of power, with Garcia's strong showing, this is no longer the case. Toledo's refusal to debate any of his opponents certainly has not helped him, but a debate with Garcia at this stage would be likely to hurt him, as the charismatic Garcia has the reputation of being able to 'hypnotise' the masses. A poll held on April 18 showed Toledo with 56 per cent and Garcia with 44 per cent of those who intended to vote.
It appears that both candidates have picked up equal amounts of the votes of candidates who did not make it to the second round.
The amount of undecided voters has increased since the first round though, and because of this, it is difficult to predict the winner with any certainty. As we have also seen in Jamaica, voters have very short memories, even when it comes to former heads of state who once ruined the economy.
It will be interesting days ahead for Peru regardless of who wins the elections. Despite his many faults, President Fujimori did leave behind a relatively stable economy and a weakened guerrilla movement. We can only hope that in the drive to undo all the ills of the Fujimori regime, that the new government does not also undo the good.
Lisa McGregor is a regular contributor who writes on Inter-American issues.
