Alex
HAVE you heard that I'm being deported as a result of my harsh criticism of the Government.
Not really, I am off to foreign soil though. If only it were true. It would have been great to have ended with a bang, to be the person making the headlines rather than writing them.
The thought of being able to put that kind of maverick tag on my resume certainly appeals to me but alas freedom of speech is pretty much in tact, its just that too many people are tied to partisan posts.
For almost five years now I have chronicled the House that Omar Built, or should I say is trying to build or should I in fact say PJ asked Omar to refurbish.
The characters I've written about have for the most part been good sports, which bodes well for the future.
The central figure of much of my displeasure, ridicule and intermittent praise has been our builder par excellence, Finance Minister Dr. Omar Davies. Truth be told, I hold him in high regard and the place would not have been the same without him to poke fun at. However, I still believe its time for some fresh blood at the top.
Its been good to see that Dr. Davies and others such as Bank of Jamaica governor Derick Latibeaudiere always took the criticism on the chin, with a recognition that it was not personal, which is more than can be said for some.
And I still find it hard to justify how the head of training agency HEART, Robert Gregory, can take home twice what Rex Nettleford does at the University of the West Indies.
I've made some of the best and worst mistakes one can imagine. But I've grown tremendously in doing so.
As a civil engineering student, I suppose you might say my house was built on some shaky foundations, until I understood the runnins better and hired the "right" experts for the job.
Remember back in 1996 when I thought the whole structure was about to collapse and I had that Mexican-style sinking feeling. Was that in fact 1997, 1998 or 1999?
It took me three years before I realised the current state of "stabilisation" could defy gravity for longer than I had anticipated, as someone said to me this week.
There was the huge Financial Sector Adjustment Company (FINSAC) gaffe I made. FINSAC bill could top $30 billion I said in 1997, which was shot down as ridiculous by Finance Minister Dr. Omar Davies.
I mean, how wrong could I have been. The bill is now more than $130 billion. Let us not forget, the net bill is going to be closer to three times my initial gross estimate.
Then, there was the exchange rate "misunderstandings", the belief that at some time soon, it would become obvious that the currency would depreciate. I mean we were the paper that began publishing those Economist Intelligence Unit reports. Remember the EIU report that predicted the US$1.00 to J$55 at the start of 1999 I think.
I mean, who would have thought we would continue subsidising the "rich" for so long. I and a lot of other people actually thought they'd wise up and realise that keeping the dollar at its current level was just encouraging people to buy more and more imported goods. Giving people the impression that there wealth is increasing by keeping the US dollar cheap is a futile policy but one that still seems to be en vogue.
And of course there's the side effects of the policy, which I think has been one of my bizarre success stories. I always said that it would be a costly affair to defend the exchange and bring down interest rates in a shrinking economy and I think I've been proven right.
I was totally wrong about inflation. I was extremely supportive of attempts to control inflation but doubted that the Bank of Jamaica would be able to contain prices. The over reliance on monetary policy, while we continue to spend too much, has had some positives.
There was also the "sense" I felt that Dr. Davies had given his last Budget speech back in April 1999. How wrong I was, he is now preparing for the 2001/2002 annual spending fest.
And I'm still asking someone to tell me how Jamaica Mutual Life Assurance Society was demutualised without any of its members challenging the move. I mean, all it would have taken was one member with benefits to object and get a lawyer and Mutual Life would still be bankrupt but in existence.
One of the benefits of being a commentator is that you don't have to be right very often for people to regard you as being the font of all knowledge.
Its a scary thought isn't it. The plan was never to think in absolute terms, just think. I called the shots as I saw them and repented when I had to.
I now think those shaky foundations have stabilised, to borrow a word from the Government, but building has stopped for the time being.
A friend of mine called Lorna often reminds me of the brighter side of life and just why Jamaica's house will not collapse.
People like her are beginning to step up to the plate and bring about the kind of changes we all want to see.
The truth is that something has gone wrong and even the most diplomatic of politicians knows that.
I'm not entirely sure what or how so many people have become used to living above there means.
But the facts speak for themselves.
In 1986 gross domestic product (GDP) was $13.9 billion in constant prices. In 1990 it stood at $17.6 billion, in 1994 $18.4 billion and $17.8 billion at the end of 1999.
Just think what has happened to the rest of the world in that 14 year period. All the writing in the world cannot hide the fact that the house we presently live in is in a terrible state of disrepair.
Our children are going overseas to work and sending money back, not for luxuries as once was the case but essential items, to pay for such things as water and electricity, patties and bread.
In real terms the money we earn is shrinking and we are mortgaged up to the roof and beyond. At last count the public debt stood at $325 billion and that doesn't include $73 billion of FINSAC debt we'll have to start paying from April. In other words, our debt is now 145 per cent of GDP.
Debt service costs, interest and principal repayments, could hit $110 billion in the coming year, which is as much or more than we earn in taxes.
However, after all is said and done, Jamaica is an intoxicating place and that's one reason why I intend to return. Watch this space!
