Mario James, Gleaner Writer

Meet 40-year-old Tony Corinthian. He is a security guard who works with Guardsman. Out of that salary, he has managed to buy his first car, a white 1989 Honda Civic. No classic, it has got miles on it, and it shows.

Tony has had his 'running shoes' for all of three months, after paying $105K for it.

The euphoria and convenience of his new acquisition quickly faded two weeks ago when he learnt that in the near future, E10 will be the only fuel available for consumption islandwide. As at December 30, it will be 'against government policy' to run an automotive power plant on anything but E10. So sayeth the Ministry of Mining and Energy.

Tony's car has carburettors - and his mechanic told him that the brass carburettor jets - holes that meter precisely the ratio of fuel to ingested air to be burnt in the engine - will pit and corrode over time, eventually necessitating replacement. Needless to say, he is quite worried.

No idea

Tony said he didn't even know about the switch to ethanol-blended fuel. Let's agree, for argument's sake that the media coverage was extensive enough, so that not hearing the news was his fault. With to be made compulsory by the end of November, where is his choice?

Most, if not all, service stations, having advance knowledge and deeming it unprofitable to wait on the looming axe, have pre-empted the situation and, predictably, have not renewed their 'normal' Methyl tert-butyl ether (MTBE) fuel stock. That stock probably ran out the week before the full roll-out, which started November 2. Petrojam stopped manufacturing the obsolete gas prior to the roll-out.

While Petrojam is only accountable for 60 per cent of the petroleum market, it's obvious that the writing is on the wall. With the revelation last week that Mitsubishi Motor Corp issued an edict stating that platforms using their Gasolene Direct Injection engines should not run on fuels containing more than five per cent ethanol, it casts a red flag over the pilot test that was done in 2008.

Here are a few facts for perspective. Jamaica's motor-vehicle fleet primarily consists of Japanese domestic market products.

A United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) study researching the progress of biofuel implementation in Japan, dated June 1, 2009, quoted as one of its findings, "In general, the [Japanese] car industry has not embraced ethanol as a blend for its cars' fuel."

While the world is moving towards the E10 standard, some countries have elected to run on fuels containing only five per cent alcohol, which gives the older cars a chance to reach end-of-life without government-induced problems.

Pilot test

In addition to this, Petrojam's pilot test ran for all of six months, with a little more than 70 cars participating. In Japan, where the current standard is E3 (three per cent ethanol), they are testing their sample fleet for three years. The testing, which started earlier this year, will conclude in 2012; data will be processed and a decision to go to E10 be made, according to the results.

Lest you get the wrong idea, I'm all for the environment; MTBE (the additive being phased out) is carcinogenic and was starting to show up in places that it really shouldn't in the US. It brought on a scare similar to the one caused by the pesticide DDT in the latter part of the 20th century. The same scenario can play out right here.

Sweeping decisions

The detection of trace amounts of MTBE in groundwater started an official US switch to ethanol from early as 1995. E10 became mandatory in most US states in 2004. In Australia and New Zealand, cane fuel is prevalent - but it is sold alongside MTBE fuel. In other countries, the rug is never pulled out from under the consumer. But this is Jamaica.

As always, when policy makers are making sweeping decisions, the axe falls on ordinary people first. Tony's car, while still running, has lately started to idle a little rough. It takes a little longer to start in the morning; there is a marked increase in fuel consumption; its idle speed, when warm, has increased to the point that when engaging reverse from park or drive, the engine slams against its mounts. Now we aren't for one minute saying that this new malady is definitively caused by E10, as this is a 20-year-old car.

But then again, can the petro concerns be held responsible for these new symptoms purportedly caused by their new fuel? Not in a million years. Insulated by a wall of bureaucratic red tape, class-action suits brought to bear will probably be settled by your great-grandchildren.

Tony had hopes of selling his car next year - for a profit - and buying something more modern. But as E10 takes its toll on the older cars in the fleet, even those plans seem to be vapid. The wheat will be separated from the chaff. He fears the Civic will not be worth anything next year.

"My likkle investment backfire," he said, "it might just turn chicken coop." But he has Hobson's choice - no choice at all.

mario.james@gleanerjm.com