Seaga

Daraine Luton, Staff Reporter

BARACK OBAMA or John McCain, who would be better for developing countries like Jamaica? Neither, says former prime minister Edward Seaga.

Obama, an African American, and McCain are both seeking to replace George W. Bush as president of the United States when America votes on November 4.

"I don't know that there is that much commitment to this region anymore from Washington by either party. The Cold War is over, so the political interest that was there has waned," Seaga tells The Sunday Gleaner.

The Cold War refers to the post-World War II period up to 1991, when the Berlin Wall fell. During that period, United States - a capitalist superpower - and communist Soviet Union maintained hostile relations as they competed for world supremacy.

Suffered in Cold War

Richard Crawford, lecturer of political science at the University of the West Indies, Mona, says Jamaica suffered during the Cold War for two reasons. The first was its relationship with communist Cuba, and second, support for the liberation of South Africa from white minority rule along racial lines.

"The United States was able to use Edward Seaga's government, which was ideologically opposed to the People's National Party policy of democratic socialism, as an organisation that opposed that policy," Crawford recounts.

He adds that the US had an interest in Jamaica not heading down the road of democratic socialism, and this was evident when President Ronald Reagan invited Seaga to the White House after the 1980 election to offer his congratulations.

No political interest

Now that the Cold War is over, following the collapse of the Soviet Union, Seaga says the United States no longer has an active political interest in Jamaica.

"I don't see any other interest replacing that original strong political commitment. It seems to me that there will be a modicum of continuing assistance with the policy directives coming from Washington as to how they should assist, but I really don't see any sizeable increase in that interest from whoever wins," Seaga says.

When Seaga took over the reins of government in 1980, Jamaica's economy was broken. Seaga says that it was the active interest that the United States had in Jamaica that kept the country afloat.

"In my time, when the bottom dropped out of the bauxite and alumina market, we went down from 12 million tonnes of bauxite mined, and by the middle of the decade, we were down to six million tonnes. I succeeded in getting Washington to purchase bauxite from us for their stockpile. If that had not been done, the bottom would have fallen out of the whole economy," Seaga says.

But Crawford believes Jamaica and the world will benefit from Obama in the White House.

"We can look forward to a period of peace, end to war and increased production, which will benefit the country," Crawford reasons. Obama has said that he would sit and talk to world leaders without preconditions to work out diplomatic solutions to conflicts.

"We would be seeing the end of an era of hostile military-type politics from the United States if Barack Obama becomes president," Crawford says.

Primary concern

But the foreign-policy proposals of both McCain and Obama are not what a majority of Americans will vote on. The vast majority of American voters have indicated in opinion polls that the ailing economy is their primary concern and the main issue they will be taking to the polls.

In their quest to secure the office, Obama and McCain have served up several electoral promises, chief among them being tax-cut policies aimed at different socioeconomic groups. McCain proposes cutting the corporate tax rate from 35 per cent to 25 per cent, while Obama would raise corporate taxes to help pay for tax cuts for everyone earning under $250,000 a year.

However, Seaga believes that McCain and Obama are speaking from a dark room. "Nobody really knows how deep the hole is," he said of the US economy, which many economists agree is either in recession or on the verge of recession.

The United States has experienced a sharp increase in claims for jobless benefits since a credit crunch hit Wall Street and crippled business activity across the country.

'Credit tsunami'

Former chairman of the Federal Reserve, Allan Greenspan, called the US financial crisis a "once-in-a-century credit tsunami" and said it had "turned out to be much broader than anything I could have imagined".

Seaga says that it is this reality that causes Obama and McCain to dig deep for solutions to appease the people.

"They have to give answers which are palatable," Seaga says. "I think they are both premature in saying what they can do, but this is politics, so you have to say something."

Seaga, who gave up his American citizenship and served in Jamaica's Parliament for 40 years, says whichever way Americans vote, Jamaicans should neither expect to be cuddled nor kept at bay by Washington.

Seaga says people must watch and see to what extent Jamaica will be affected by the recovery plan of the new US president. "We are talking about Washington being in the same boat - in a lifeboat," Seaga says.

And from his close monitoring of the election, Seaga has seen signs of a possible Obama win.

"I don't get the impression from how McCain is campaigning that he is feeling good. I think he is running scared," Seaga says.

daraine.luton@gleanerjm.com.