Bill Johnson, Contributor
(Left)Dejected members of the People's National Party (PNP) from left: party general secretary, Donald Buchanan (head bowed); vice-president, Peter Phillips, and campaign director, Paul Robertson, listen as PNP president, Portia Simpson Miller, gives her post-election speech at the party's Old Hope Road headquarters in St. Andrew. She refused to concede defeat to the Jamaica Labour Party. At right is PNP vice-president, Angela Brown-Burke.- Rudolph Brown/Chief Photographer
(Right)The victorious Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) Leader Bruce Golding (right) votes in the St. Andrew North Eastern Division on election day, Monday, September 3.- Junior Dowie/Staff Photographer
Properly conducted polling during the course of an election campaign provides insights into the mood of the electorate and, in particular, helps to ascertain what is resonating with voters as the campaign progresses it has become a cliché that a poll is just a 'snapshot in time', I believe that a series of snapshots taken at fairly regular intervals can provide a virtual motion picture of the campaign and the reasons for changes of opinion that can occur during the course of an election. A review of the 11 national polls conducted for The Gleaner in their entirety provides an invaluable insight into the dynamics and the ebb and flow of the just-concluded election campaign.
March 2006
This 'movie' starts in early March of 2006, just after Portia Simpson Miller was sworn in as Prime Minister and carried with her the hopes and aspirations of the island's downtrodden to Jamaica House.
Seventy-eight per cent had a favourable opinion of her at this time, while only 11 per cent viewed her unfavourably. In contrast, her opponent, Bruce Golding, had a 35 per cent favourable rating and a 50 per cent unfavourable rating - basically unchanged from surveys we had conducted since his return to the JLP during the 2002 election campaign. By a three to one majority, 63 per cent to 20 per cent, voters thought that the new Prime Minister would do a better job in that position than the Opposition Leader. By a two to one majority, 52 per cent to 26 per cent, registered voters said they would vote for the PNP over the JLP.
Needless to say, the Prime Minister and her party were in line for a landslide victory if they had been able to get their act together and call an election during this period of 'Portiamania'. (During this time women who voted for the JLP in 2002 said they were almost as likely to vote for the PNP and 'Sister P' as they were to vote for the JLP.)
May 2006
After the Prime Minister made her contribution to the Budget Debate in Parliament with a speech that received generally unfavourable and disappointing reviews, the high-flying 'Portia phenomenon' started to slowly subside and leave the stratosphere and head back down to Earth.
Her favourable rating dropped 14 points to 64 per cent, while her unfavourable rating started creeping up to 15 per cent. At the same time, people started to have conflicting thoughts about Bruce Golding, and his favourable rating dipped to 31 per cent while at the same time his unfavourable rating dropped to 42 per cent. Simpson Millers's advantage over Golding as to who would be the better Prime Minister also dropped, but to a still formidable 55 per cent to 20 per cent majority. At the same time, the PNP's vote in an election dropped to 44 per cent while the JLP's remained steady at 26 per cent.
July 2006
With speculation mounting over when the Prime Minister would call the election, the air of unrealistic - and unattainable - expectations of what she would be able to immediately accomplish as Prime Minister continued to leak out of the balloon as her favourable rating declined to 60 per cent and her favourable rating increased to 19 per cent.
In just four months, her favourable to unfavourable ratio plummeted from an unsustainable seven to one to a more realistic three to one. Meanwhile, Bruce Golding's numbers stayed basically the same - 31 per cent favourable and 44 per cent unfavourable.
The PNP's vote in a hypothetical election dropped to 38 per cent, while the JLP remained frozen at 26 per cent.
October 2006
JLP radio ads that reminded people of their promise for 'free education' in contrast to the PNP's broken promises in this regard, and ads meant to soften Bruce Golding's image and 'humanise' him, in combination with the Trafigura situation and the PNP's bumbling response to it, combined to bring the Prime Minister and her party crashing down to earth by the end of October.
Although the PM's personal popularity remained relatively high, 54 per cent favourable to 29 per cent unfavourable, Golding's favourable rating rose to 35 per cent, and only a 10-point spread, 42 per cent to 32 per cent, now separated the two as to who would do a better job as Prime Minister. However, the vote itself became an absolute deadheat: 32 per cent to 32 per cent.
January 2007
By this time, the Prime Minster has lost her 'superhero' image and is being viewed as a human being like the rest of us. Her favourable and unfavourable ratings remained basically static, 52 per cent and 30 per cent, while Golding's numbers did the same, 34 per cent and 42 per cent. Despite the best efforts of the JLP and some in the media, the Trafigura situation cauterised and became 'yesterday's news'. Voters' choice remained essentially the same: 31 per cent PNP and 32 per cent JLP.
May 2007
The JLP's caravan across and around the country appears to have minimal effect as the Prime Minister's budget speech jump-starts the political world out of its doldrums and her favourable rating leaps six points to 58 per cent, while her unfavourable ratings slip to 28 per cent, while Bruce Golding continues to tread water, 32 per cent favourable and 44 per cent unfavourable. By a 47 per cent to 28 per cent plurality, the voters now say that Portia Simpson Miller would be a better Prime Minister than Bruce Golding, and the PNP's vote jumps to 34 per cent while the JLP's drops to 27 per cent, a seven-point spread.
June 2007
With speculation rife that an election is about to be called, the JLP begins a concerted media campaign that concentrates on the demeanourof the Prime Minister and the 'Need for a Change'.
Portia Simpson Miller's favour-able rating drops to 54 per cent and her unfavourable rating increases to 30 per cent. Meanwhile, Bruce Golding's ratings improve margi-nally to 35 per cent favourable and 42 per cent unfavourable. The number of electors who think Portia Simpson Miller would make a better Prime Minister than Bruce Golding, slides from 45 per cent to 31 per cent, a 14-point difference - down from a 19-point difference a month ago.
In spite of not answering the JLP's media campaign, the PNP maintains its seven-point lead over the JLP, 38 per cent to 31 per cent, as more and more voters start to focus on the election and make up their minds.
July 2007
The Prime Minister finally announces the election date on July 8 during a two-and-a-half hour televised informercial that was watched by 69 per cent of the country. She surprises everyone by naming the date seven weeks away on August 27.
Her favourable and unfavourable ratings increase incrementally to 56 per cent and 32 per cent respectively, while the millions of dollars in unanswered JLP media ads have increased Bruce Golding's favourable rating by three points to 38 per cent. There is now a 13-point advantage for the Prime Minister in terms of who would make a better PM, 47 per cent to 34 per cent, while the PNP's share of the vote increases to 40 per cent and the JLP's rises to 34 per cent.
August 11/12
The campaign is in full swing and charges and countercharges are tossed back and forth. Over 80 per cent of our interviews for this survey took place before the much-anticipated debate between the two candidates for Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister's favourable rating continues its decline to 52 per cent while her unfavourable rating jumps to 37 per cent. In the meantime, Bruce Golding's favourable rating climbs to 41 per cent, much the same as his unfavourable rating of 43 per cent. There is now only a seven-point difference, 46 per cent to 39 per cent, in terms of who would do thebetter job as Prime Minister.
And there is only a two-point difference in the vote between the two parties: PNP 40 per cent and JLP 38 per cent.
August 18
This post-date, pre-Hurricane Dean poll shows the Prime Minister's favourable rating ticking downward to 51 per cent, while her unfavourable rating stays at 37 per cent. The Opposition Leader's favourable rating bounces up to 44 per cent and his unfavourable rating declines minimally to 42 per cent.
For the first time in eleven and a half years his favourable rating exceeds his unfavourable ratings. However, 45 per cent think Simpson Miller would make the better Prime Minister compared to 40 per cent who favour Golding. At this time, there is absolutely no difference in the vote for either party - 40 per cent to 40 per cent.
August 25/26
On the weekend after 'Dean' hits Jamaica, the Prime Minister's favourable rating dips to 50 per cent while her unfavourable number remains constant at 37 per cent. Meanwhile, Bruce Golding's favourable rating increases to 46 per cent and his unfavourable rating declines to 38 per cent. By a one-point margin, he is now preferred over Portia Simpson Miller as the person who Jamaicans think would do the better job as Prime Minister.
The JLP's vote climbs to 42 per cent while the PNP's drops to 38 per cent as people are frustrated with the pace of the hurricane-relief efforts of the Government.
September 3
Election day. The government's relief efforts and checks for Hurricane Dean victims and non-victims appear to have a slight positive effect for the PNP as the total vote is virtually dead even. (Our final poll would have translated into a 52 per cent to 48 per cent popular vote victory for the JLP. In fact, it appears to have been a 50+% 50-% victory for the JLP.)
On Sunday, September 2, The Gleaner predicted that, based on our poll findings, the final seat count would be JLP - 32 and PNP - 28.
