Gareth Manning, Sunday Gleaner Reporter
Respected financial analyst John Jackson says it may be better for the business sector if Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller calls the general election next month. But other commentators believe the electorate is not yet ready for an election.
Jackson perceives an election will cause minimal negative consequences for the economy.
"Economically, I don't see a major issue. In fact, based on the uncertainty that exists within the business sector it is probably advisable to have it and get it over with," Jackson advises.
In July, a survey sponsored by the Jamaica Chamber of Commerce's Conference Board found that business confidence in the future slumped by 20 per cent during the second quarter of this year. But the same survey showed a 10 per cent rise in consumer confidence in the future, which analysts attribute to the advent of the populist Prime Minister, Portia Simpson Miller.
Against this background, and with recent poll findings tipping in favour of Mrs. Simpson Miller and the ruling People's National Party (PNP), Mr. Jackson believes she may want to have an election now rather than later.
"I don't see anything phenomenal that is going to happen between now and next year that will have strong economic [impact]," he opines. Adds Jackson: "Economic growth next year, perhaps, doesn't mean very much to the average man ... He needs tangible evidence that something dramatically has changed."
In contrast to Jackson's preference for an early election, social scientist Charlene Sharpe-Pryce, surmises that the society is not ready for an election in October.
October not a good time
"She doesn't have to wait until it is constitutionally due, but October is not a good time. People are not ready for it," reasons Sharpe-Pryce, who heads the history and geography department at the Mandeville-based Northern Caribbean University.
She thinks both political parties need to do more ground work to rally the people. And she questioned whether the PNP, in particular, currently has the capacity to finance an election campaign because it expended so much during the presidential race five months ago.
In addition, the social scientist agrees with views that the party has not properly healed and so is not in a state to contest a general election, despite the popularity of Mrs. Simpson Miller.
"Her charisma and popularity will still stand, but it is not enough to win an election as we would have seen in history right across the Caribbean," suggests Sharpe-Pryce She adds: "I think, therefore, that she should have a solid achievement under her belt ... one thing that she can say, 'under my watch this has happened.'"
Turning to the Opposition Jamaica Labour Party (JLP), Sharpe-Pryce says it still has a genuine disconnect with portions of the society, particularly young professionals who share the party's ideology.
"There are many young professionals who are waiting to be courted by either party ... They are waiting to be approached. Time is therefore needed to get some ground work on the JLP's part."
Former National Democratic Movement leader, Hyacinth Bennett, shares similar thoughts. She says an election in October would be too close to call. While she is not arguing that it would be advantageous for the Prime Minister to delay holding general election, Mrs. Bennett surmises an election now might favour a popular Portia Simpson Miller rather than a 2007 election. She also believes a later election would give the Prime Minister more time to flex her managerial skills and implement promises she made at her inauguration.
"Where I think the real electoral battle will be fought is on the ground, in the constituencies, in the divisions, in the trenches," Bennett states emphatically.
