D. K. Duncan, Contributor
THE TWO major political parties will experience a significantly shortened political year in 2005, following the conclusion of their internal elections.
The People's National Party (PNP) has lost close to five months as a result of Hurricane Ivan, which forced the re-scheduling of their September 2004 conference to January of this year.
This period also includes the additional two weeks spent in preparing for the unexpected vice-presidential elections, and the week preceding elections at the National Executive Council (NEC) meeting held two days ago.
The Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) will have lost four months by the time their central executive meet on March 5, to elect at the minimum, a new chairman and deputy chairman. Barring any unexpected court injunction - the primary reason for their shortened political year - the JLP's conference on Sunday should see the re-election of the four incumbent deputy leaders, as well as the election by acclamation of a new leader.
The shortened political year could have a profound impact on the political dynamics in the remaining seven months for the PNP and eight for the JLP.
BY-ELECTION
A new leader of the JLP will want to stamp his authority on the party, while convincing the country of his ability to take on the formidable task of prime minister. The JLP's November conference will provide a major platform to put these characteristics on public display. The PNP between now and their conference in September will have to continue to walk through the raindrops, as the pace of their leadership transition process accelerates. The impact of one on the other will no doubt result in unforeseen challenges for both.
The impasse resulting from the recent ruling of the Privy Council on matters relating to the Caribbean Court of Justice (CCJ) has already set some forces in train. The JLP has proposed and the PNP has accepted the need for bipartisan and non-partisan talks on this and other issues. It is difficult, however, to anticipate meaningful talks if Bruce Golding is formally elected JLP leader, without the prospect of an early by-election in the vacant West Kingston constituency. Golding cannot go to his November conference with the requisite authority unless by then he is also a member of Parliament (MP) and leader of the Opposition.
Most political observers feel that the prime minister will need no prodding to facilitate this situation.
CONSTITUTIONS
Mindful of recent and coming events, both political parties will be paying much more attention to the requirements of their respective constitutions. Whereas in the past, the spirit of the law was more often than not invoked, conforming to the letter will be the order of the day. For the PNP, the vexed matter of functional as distinct from paper groups will assume dominance, as the final voters' list for the presidential elections begin to take shape. Mindful of court injunctions and the need for party unity, the JLP's secretariat and leadership will know that the public is now aware that the JLP's delegates list is shaped from as early as the end of March each year. The secretariat of both parties will have their hands full in carrying out the letter of the law.
THE ECONOMY
Before the party conferences convene later this year, including the economy, crime and violence, as well as education will continue to loom large. Another critical budget exercise is in the making. PNP presidential candidate Omar Davies will face two rejuvenated opposition spokespersons on the economy - Shaw and Golding. To a large extent, his presidential aspirations will turn on the performance of the economy.
Prime Minister Patterson will no doubt want to report meaningfully on his checklist to the PNP conference in September. The next seven months for the PNP could be very exhausting if national and party goals are to be met. The JLP will be just as jaded if Bruce is to be MP and leader of the Opposition leading a united party come November, 2005.
One Love, One Heart.
A dental surgeon, Dr. D.K. Duncan is a former Cabinet minister and general secretary in the PNP administration of the 1970's.
