Anthony Myers, ContributorTHE ADVENT of Hurricane Ivan on September 10, 2004 caused the People's National Party (PNP) 66th annual conference to be postponed until January 22, 2005. What would then be a three-day conference was watered down to one day. Oh! what a day this turned out to be.
The party leadership was pretty confident that all four incumbent vice-presidents would be returned unopposed. Consequently, there was no preparation for a vice-presidential election. However, Mr. Paul Burke and his advisers had other ideas.
The Sunday Gleaner, January 23, 2005 carried on its front page 'Burke's Bomb' - 'Dark horse charges into PNP's vice-presidential race'. Can you imagine the shock wave throughout the arena when it became known that a fifth candidate would be nominated thus resulting in the need for an election? With no voters list prepared for a contest along with printed ballots, the secretariat must have found itself in a state of disarray. How on God's earth could one expect the secretariat to be ready at such short notice to meet the constitutional requirement of the party as it relates to the conduct of internal election?
CONVINCED BY ADVISERS
The question must therefore be: Why did not Mr. Burke - as he said on the electronic media the following week that he was convinced by his advisors at 6:15 a.m. the morning of January 22 - contact the general secretary of the party advising him that he would be contesting the vice-presidential election.
It is very likely that the general secretary would then have had to use the available time, which amounts to approximately 4 1/2 hours, to put in place the machinery to conduct the election. Only Mr. Burke can explain. Mr. Burke's failure to do what seemed a highly-principled act could have set a precedent that the party now must address to prevent any such future unfortunate - and what seemed ill-advised - acts. Do not get me wrong. Mr. Burke acted within the guidelines of the party's constitution, the problem I have was the timing lest we forget it was a one-day conference.
Now for the results as I see it come February 5, 2005. Portia Simpson Miller will top the poll followed by Peter Phillips, Carl Blythe, Paul Robertson and my young friend Paul Burke.
So the four incumbents will be returned, however, what is interesting is that of the four incumbents, three, namely Simpson Miller, Phillips and Blythe have all indicated that they would seek the delegates support for the presidency of the People's National Party when the incumbent demits office. It is interesting to note that Mr. Paul Burke having contested the vice-presidential election has also indicated his interest in being the president of the party. Minister Robert Pickersgill and Minister Omar Davies would not be exposed to any such contest.
POWERFUL CONTENDERS
'The question will therefore be: Had they been in the vice-presidential contest, what sort of support would they receive? No one will ever know. On the other hand, Minister Portia Simpson Miller who I expect to have quite a comfortable margin of victory will have both the powerful Region Three chairman and the chairman of the People's National Party to contend with when the presidential elections are called.
Here again, I expect as I wrote July 11, 2004 in The Gleaner, victory for the Member for south-west St. Andrew. I have a concern, in spite of my many correct political projections and predictions; there comes a time when I could be off target. My reason for saying this is based on the fact that during the meeting of all 60 members of Parliament at Gordon House on Tuesday, January 11, 2005, to pay tribute to one of Jamaica's great leaders, the Most Hon. Edward Phillip George Seaga, a comment was made by the member from South West St. Elizabeth that could prove prophetic, in that it is alleged that he said "Chairman for life" in response to a statement that the member for north-west St. Catherine, who was on his feet, made.
PICKERSGILL'S CHAIRMANSHIP
My concern is even more heightened by the fact that I did some research and discovered that the gentleman in question, Robert Pickersgill has held the chairmanship of the following positions: (1) Student Liberal Party, UWI Campus, (2) Taylor Hall (3) Guild of Graduates (4) Alumni Association (5) Clarendon College Past Students' Association (6) PNP Youth Organisation (7) Disciplinary committee (youngest chairman) (8) Internal Affairs Committee (9) Tendencies Committee (10) Accreditation Committee (PNP) (11) Finance Committee (12) North West St. Catherine constituency executive (13) People's National Party.
So here we have Robert Pickersgill, the longest-serving chairman of the People's National Party, holding chairmanship positions in 12 other areas, from the university to his present position.
It only leaves therefore for him to be chairman of the Cabinet and that would be the crowning experience. Could it be that the Hon. Donald Buchanan who happens to be a devout Christian, like Daniel of old, got the vision and decided to share it with us. For such a comment to be prophetic, only the delegates of the People's National Party have the power to ensure the fulfilment thereof. As I have often said, the greatest friend of truth is time.
Anthony 'Tony' Myers is a statistician/political analyst.
