Ian Boyne, Contributor
DON'T TAKE it for granted that the commanding 51.6 per cent national approval of Portia Simpson Miller as the successor to People's National Party (PNP) President PJ Patterson, compared with her nearest rival's (Peter Phillips) 21.8 per cent, means that it's all over but the shouting. Sister P still has many rivers to cross.
The succession race in the PNP is not as clear-cut as it is in the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) where Bruce Golding is expected to trounce anyone who comes against him.
While the PNP is not so jaded and exhausted by its four terms in office that it is disdainful of public opinion, it is hardly likely to choose a successor to PJ Patterson based just on popularity polls.
Both the Members of Parliament (MPs) and delegates knew that Portia Simpson Miller is very popular and charismatic, so they would not be surprised by the recent Don Anderson/Gleaner polls.
Party members remember that she was also very popular in 1992 more popular than PJ Patterson, whom no one has ever accused of being charismatic but who beat her nevertheless in the election for party president.
However, they would be foolish to ever take her for granted. And they are certainly not likely to.
DIFFERENT DYNAMICS
The dynamics leading up to the 2007 general elections are quite different from those of 1992.
First and most importantly, Edward Seaga is no longer leading the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP). That such an overwhelming percentage of Jamaicans (80 per cent) feel that his decision to step down is good for the party, as revealed by the Don Anderson polls, should come as no surprise to anyone following the Jamaican political scene.
Seaga's departure has made the JLP immensely more attractive and marketable. And with Bruce Golding as leader, the JLP will be a formidable force to beat.
No election in its history of electoral contests will stretch the PNP's creativity, marketing brilliance, organisational skills and strategic thinking more than the one due in 2007.
The two parties are basically committed to the same neo-liberal model of economic development, with some variation on the theme. And the PNP has been in power for four terms, which creates a natural momentum to shout 'Time's up!'
When you have been in power for four terms, even if the economy is going in the right direction and investments are flowing, there is the intuitive feeling by the average voter that somebody else should be 'given a chance'; that no party should govern for so long; and that parties get arrogant and complacent after three terms, let alone four.
It doesn't take a genius to see that to convince an electorate that the same party deserves five consecutive terms will draw upon all of the reservoir of political strategizing, gamesmanship and marketing.
The PNP will be approaching the next general elections with the utmost seriousness and detail, and the first step is to ensure that the person chosen to lead the party into those elections is absolutely the best and the person most capable of withstanding the fiery darts of the opponents.
The two front-runners at this point are Portia Simpson Miller and Dr. Peter Phillips. They are two strong, forceful candidates.
WEAKNESSES AND STRENGTHS
What are their perceived weaknesses and strengths?
The PNP has traditionally been the party of the intellectuals and the intelligentsia. Portia is not perceived as fitting easily into this mold.
Indeed, Portia-backers fear that the perception of her as not being intellectually forceful and technocratically adept is perhaps the biggest drawback in a party that has traditionally put a lot of weight on these matters.
Manley had charisma but he was an intellectual force, and on the international scene he stamped that intellectual force not only on the Third World, where he was a premier leader of thought, but also on the developed world.
Patterson's intellectual acumen is widely acknowledged and his negotiating skills on the international scene have been legendary, continuing to this day. (His recent chairmanship of CARICOM was impressive and his handling of the Haitian and Zimbabwean crises earned him encomiums from important quarters in the international community).
The PNP, after all, is the party of Norman Washington Manley. The lawyers' party.
This is the kind of party heritage and culture in which Portia Simpson Miller has to operate.
Jamaica Observer columnist Mark Wignall is already wailing about 'the UWI mafia' who is determined to stop Portia. We all know of the prejudices of middle class Jamaica.
We all know of its concern about having a Prime Minister who can speak extemporaneously in important United Nations fora and at international conferences, and who can effectively and spontaneously answer questions from the international press. And, to be truthful, it's not just middle class people who have these expectations.
But I put it to you that a great deal of the outcome of both the internal party elections and the general elections will depend on how the political handlers market and brand their candidates.
A lot will depend on the public relations and marketing skills of the campaign teams. And how the issues are framed.
The Portia-backers might well make the point that the perceived intellectual weaknesses of their candidate don't factor as much as some make out.
PORTIA'S STRONG SUPPORT
The Don Anderson polls show that Portia has strong support across all segments of the population. Not only does she have a 58 per cent support among women, a 55 per cent support among rural persons and a similar 55 per cent support among low-income, grassroots persons, but her support is also strong among upper-income people.
The Gleaner, in reporting the results of the Don Anderson poll showing Portia Simpson Miller way ahead of the other contenders including Peter Phillips, notes that while "Phillips' support is strongest among upper-income persons where over 29 per cent feel that he should succeed PJ. But even here, however, 42 per cent say that they would opt for Simpson Miller". That is significant and noteworthy.
It is interesting to note, in comparison, that Pearnel Charles in the JLP suffers from the same perception of not being intellectually and technocraticatically strong and is also a popular grassroots champion of the poor, but that Portia has much stronger support among middle class people and people in the media.
And people still believe she would make an effective Prime Minister though she has no Ph.D. (And, interestingly, Pearnel has long had a political science degree from a United States university, too but this has never really helped to build his image as a man of ideas).
PORTIA APPEAL
The Portia-backers might ask, if the Jamaican people who are the ones who will elect a Prime Minister in 2007 seem not be as hung up about who is brighter than whom, and if the polls show that Portia would be acceptable to middle and upper class Jamaica, then why use the perception of intellectual weakness to block her?
There are a number of factors for the Portia appeal across all classes.
Portia is seen as a caring, compassionate, feeling, empathetic and honest person. She is perceived as a person who puts the interest of the poor and 'truth and rights' above party interests.
Portia comes across as sincere, well meaning, passionate, and, importantly, humble.
Her gender is also an important factor in the support for her. Many feel 'it's time for a woman Prime Minister' and some like to back the group seen as traditionally excluded and discriminated against, in this case a woman.
The Portia-backers can make the point that there is nothing which says the Prime Minister has to be the brightest person in the team. Once she has a strong, dynamic team she could conceivably be a good Prime Minister. And nobody believes she is a fool.
Portia also has support from sections of the media, which is very important.
Fellow Gleaner columnist Dawn Ritch, a strong anti-PNP writer, has for long been a loud supporter.
Mark Wignall has already endorsed her and he will not tire to 'big her up', unless Phillips or Davies manages to woo him away. (They should start by inviting him for drinks).
DON'T DISMISS PHILLIPS
Peter Phillips is not to be dismissed because he is so far behind Portia. He is seen as having strong support among PNP MPs and influentials, is very ambitious, possesses a razor-sharp mind and has a serious grasp of the challenges which faces this country.
While Bruce Golding recognises the charismatic and popular force of Portia Simpson Miller, he knows that Peter Phillips would give him a most difficult time in trading intellectual punches.
He certainly would not believe that Peter Phillips would be an easy match in any public debate.
The PNP faces some serious dilemmas and will have to do some serious critical thinking.
Portia has strong popular appeal and is likely to whip up much electoral support for a fifth term, but faced with the ideas merchant and born again political reformer Bruce Golding, with a strong image as a serious thinker with a fine grasp of economic issues, do they take the chance with Portia or let loose Dr. Peter on him?
Phillips is likely to punch holes in Golding's ideas of constitutional reform, being the first-rate political scientist that he is. And with his grasp of economic issues as well as issues of globalization and development, he is likely to show up any weaknesses in Golding's ideas and political platform.
Phillips is already hinting at making the values and attitudes issues critical to his campaign, talking about family life issues and going to the heart of some of the social problems in Jamaica.
If his campaign goes directly after the Christian vote and exploit the concerns of Christians, and he plays the moral card in this fundamentalist country, he would gain the mileage to perhaps counter his weaknesses. (The JLP will clobber him about his record as security minister, and with crime and violence the number one concern in the country outside of unemployment, that propaganda line would be very potent).
Portia and Peter are two strong candidates for the successor to PJ Patterson. That the PNP successor will be Prime Minister before an election is called, and that we will have time to assess his or her work before 2007 is not likely to be a plus. It's a big gamble.
Bruce Golding will be coming in fresh, new and different born again. The PNP successor must make a mark in two years or less.
Who will delegates think is best able to make that difference and to deliver the economic goods and inspire hope? The MPs and movers and shakers in the PNP - plus the political handlers and the media - will have a significant role to play in influencing the answer.
