By Omar Anderson, Gleaner WriterPOLITICAL ANALYSTS are touting Portia Simpson Miller, vice-president of the People's National Party (PNP) and Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) Chairman Bruce Golding as the likely successors to leadership in the upcoming races for their party's top post.
The analysts have gone even a step further to say that the two are the best contenders to secure victory in the general election constitutionally due by 2007.
However, Simpson Miller has the edge over Golding, according to the analysts, who insist that the JLP chairman cannot match the grassroots popularity of the PNP vice-president and Cabinet Minister.
Although one analyst has raised the possibility of the so-called PNP 'intelligentsia' ceding the election to the JLP, and selecting someone else to rebuild the party, the majority thinks the present Local Government, Sports and Community Development Minister is best-suited for the job if the PNP decides it wants to extend its 15-year grip on power.
Helene Davis-Whyte, general secretary of the Jamaica Association of Local Government Officers (JALGO), told The Sunday Gleaner last week that the PNP would be better served by adhering to the view of the population when it selects its next president.
She was referring to opinion polls, the latest of which was a Gleaner-commissioned Don Anderson poll earlier this year. This showed over 44 per cent of all persons interviewed stating that Mrs. Simpson Miller was most likely to succeed Prime Minister P.J. Patterson when he demits office.
"If you look at her ability to draw out the masses, it would be Portia in the PNP and I think the talk of a Pearnel Charles may well be something the JLP should look at," Mrs. Davis-Whyte said.
The same poll showed PNP Vice-President Dr. Peter Phillips registering a 30 per cent approval rating with Finance Minister Dr. Omar Davies finishing a distant third with 3.9 per cent.
In the same poll Mr. Golding registered a robust 52 per cent as the man seen as the most logical successor to Edward Seaga, who recently announced he would be stepping down as JLP leader in November.
Pearnel Charles was the closest to Mr. Golding with 7.9 per cent.
Meanwhile, the JALGO general secretary added that Mr. Golding, JLP chairman, draws most of this support from the middle class and would, if he intends to beat Mrs. Simpson Miller, have to surround himself with persons who can appeal to the masses.
According to Mrs. Davis-Whyte neither Dr. Phillips nor Dr. Davies has the ability to garner any support from the electorate.
"I really think if the PNP is trying to win the next general election, Portia Simpson Miller has to be the choice," she said.
This view is shared by statistician Troy Caine, who tells The Sunday Gleaner that the Local Government Minister would provide an "interesting" challenge to Mr. Golding, who he says does not have broad-based support in the JLP. But Mr. Golding, he argues, still remains the party's best bet, compared to Mr. Charles who Caine says has lost some of his popularity.
STIFFEST CHALLENGE
Lambert Brown, vice-president of the University and Allied Workers' Union (UAWU), also believes Mr. Golding will find his stiffest challenge in an election contest with Mrs. Simpson Miller.
"On the other hand, if you put Pearnel against Peter or an Omar, clearly, it would be a technocratic (leader) versus a charismatic (and) in that situation, Pearnel would come out on top," Mr. Brown observes. He adds that Mr. Charles would be able to appeal to his "blackness" and his service to grassroots supporters.
"But he can't do that against Portia Simpson Miller," he said, adding that gender would also favour the Local Government Minister. "It is too close to call between Portia and Golding, but compared to anybody else in the PNP. She would take it home for the PNP. So, if it's not Portia, the best person to keep is P.J. Patterson."
Mrs. Simpson Miller was also the top choice of political scientist Brian Meeks to go up against Bruce Golding. The professor of social and political change in the Department of Government at the University of the West Indies (UWI), sees Mrs. Simpson Miller beating Mr. Golding in an election because of her mass appeal which eclipses party line.
"Everything suggests that in terms of populist appeal, Portia Simpson Miller would probably give Mr. Golding the strongest run for his money," he opines.
The professor adds that if the divided factions within the JLP rally around Mr. Golding, the electorate may re-think giving the PNP another five-year term in office.
