By Anthony Myers, ContributorCOME AUGUST 6, 2004, Jamaica will celebrate its 42nd anniversary since being granted independence by Britain. Let us not fool ourselves, slavery, the plantation culture and colonialism all tarnished authority in our society as being against the people.
So with no traditional system to be guided by, Jamaica unlike the Chinese and Japanese whose cultures have kept traditional value systems intact to manage behaviour and behavioural styles while modernising their societies and politics, finds itself with very weak structures which account for the high incidence of thuggery and lawlessness in our society today.
Even among our middle and upper classes, there is a dramatic shift in attitudes in behavioural conduct. No longer do we have example of disciplined conduct. Chivalry is dead only to be superseded by economics.
It is therefore critically important that whoever succeeds Prime Minister P.J. Patterson as president of the People's National Party must be fully aware of the tremendous task ahead and must possess the capacity to get 'all hands on deck' both hands clapping at the workplace, in spite of the outcome of an electoral contest. The question then: Is there such a person among the five credible protégés?
I have carried out a careful and in-depth analysis of the five candidates and my findings are as follows:
SHREWD, WELL-INFORMED
All five are shrewd, well-informed, full of common sense, sagacity, tinctured with idealism, good-natured and tolerant. They are cognisant of the fact that the quality of democracy depends heavily on the quality of leadership and I believe that at no stage would they sell Jamaica short.
Every crisis demands its special leadership of a type and quality which the past seldom affords precedence. It is here that we meet the problem of the relationship between the great man/woman and his/her environment; the question is whether history is shaped by the hero, or by massive socio-economic sources or by both.
Public opinion is constantly weighing leadership. There is no doubt that Prime Minister Patterson and his team, in spite of the extended period, 15 years so far, have laid a strong economic base that the new leader and his/her team can build on in the best interest of our society. All five aspirants have the power to comprehend the forces that affect the minds of the people and to discern what they desire and will support.
It was said of George Washington, who became the first President of the United States in 1789, by Gallatin in an address to the New York historical society in 1843 that "George Washington's special qualities for his crisis were solid sense, weight of character and an instinct for guiding the people. Washington was not particularly well-educated, he was far from eloquent; he lacked adroitness, but he had solid ability; he had character and a profound and almost innate sense of justice and a most complete and extraordinary self-abnegation. Personal consequences and consideration were not even thought of. They were never thought of, they were obliterated."
Can we find a George Washington among these five aspirants? I am fully convinced there exists such a person.
Among the five contestants, Dr. Omar Davies has proved beyond the shadow of a doubt that his stewardship as Finance Minister for nearly 11 years (consecutively) has kept the ship of state afloat during the most stormy period since 1962.
EXCELLENT FINANCE MINISTER
Because of his honesty and forthrightness, he has been acclaimed as an excellent Finance Minister. In a tribalised society, where politics takes centre stage, both hands fail to clap at the workplace and as a consequence, our international trade deficit keeps rising by leaps and bounds. This man has to be a genius to keep our balance of payments out of the disaster zone.The Net International Reserve is also an example of how a man with vision and commitment to his country devised ways and means to move from a minus US$400 million to a plus US$1.7 billion. Can you imagine, for the first time in 30 years for the first quarter in 2004 our balance of payments is narrowing rather than widening. This is indeed a fundamental move in the right direction. The cause is not retrogressing but going rapidly forward.
Omar Davies has also distinguished himself by working closely with the indomitable Edward Phillip George Seaga, to create a climate of peace and harmony between Labourites and Socialists which never existed before, dating back to the granting of Adult Suffrage. Should this sort of sincere, improved relationship as now exists between Western Kingston and Southern St. Andrew spread throughout the length and breadth of Jamaica, our country would become the little haven on earth that Sir Alexander Bustamante spoke so strongly about during his tenure as leader and Prime Minister.
There is no doubt that Omar Davies would be an excellent leader of the People's National Party. However, never again would I want to see a Prime Minister holding the portfolio of Minister of Finance. It is counter-productive.
Dr. Peter Phillips, would also make an excellent Prime Minister. His performance at the Ministry of Health, Ministry of Transport and Works, General Secretary of the People's National Party and as Vice President speaks volumes. It is said in "the sport of kings", that weight can stop a train. The Ministry of National Security like the Finance Ministry is a very difficult ministry to run and more recently in spite of the many strategies leading to many arrests and recovery of guns, there is no doubt that evil seems to be triumphant over good. It is difficult to see anyone doing a better job as Minister of National Security in this period of crisis as we search for solutions to maintain law and order.
Dr. Enoch Karl Blythe, the people's man, during his tenure of Minister of Water and Housing, proved beyond a shadow of a doubt that he too is a performer. In Housing, he took it to a higher level; in Water, thousands of children were no longer carrying water on their heads because they had piped water in their homes, but then came the flawed Angus Report and Jamaica has suffered dearly for it. Dr. Blythe, who is no fly by night politician, will return.
Robert Pickersgill, the longest serving chairman of the People's National Party, is a unifying force within the party. He is highly-respected and loved and draws his support from right across the board in the political arena. I have always been struck by the dignity of his bearing, the grace of his diction and as the ladies would say, the charm of his voice, things which greatly distinguish him from many of his contemporaries. I have no doubt that he will stand in history beside great statesmen like Norman Washington Manley, Hugh Lawson Shearer, Michael Manley, Edward Seaga and Percival James Patterson.
Finally, the best wine for the last Portia Simpson Miller. Her margins of victory in South West St. Andrew have been mind-boggling, even in 1980 when all the PNP trees were falling all over Jamaica, she had a massive majority of 12,668. There is no doubt in my mind that the electorate have made up their minds that they will 'face life with Portia'.
If there is one among the five who can get the uncommitted into the mainstream of economic development it's Portia Simpson Miller.
COMPETITIVE ELECTION
The next election will be extremely competitive and I have every reason to believe that the delegates would be extremely proud to select all five to succeed Prime Minister Patterson, but constitutionally, that is impossible. So they have to take into consideration whether they should select a successor who will be prime minister for 18 months as against one who will give the People's National Party a fifth term. But more importantly, one who will not only build on what one has inherited, but will take the political bar to a higher level, giving each member of the society a chance in the race of life to rise to the heights of his or her powers without having to take short cuts that most times leads to disaster.
I do believe, the mantle will fall on Portia Simpson Miller as the successor to P. J. Patterson as leader of the People's National Party and Prime Minister of Jamaica. There is a thin line between Robert Pickersgill and Dr. Omar Davies for the post of Deputy Prime Minister. That is left to the judgement of the Prime Minister in waiting.
All five candidates and my fellow Jamaicans should be reminded: "If my people who are called by my name would humble themselves and pray and seek my face and turn from their wicked ways, then will I hear from heaven and will forgive their sins and will heal their land (2 Chronicles 7 v 14).
Anthony 'Tony' Myers is a statistician and political analyst who has conducted polls on behalf of the People's National Party.
