This plane, which was tossed into trees near the Norman Manley International Airport, showed the devastating power of Hurricane Gilbert in 1988.IN QUAINT or mod towns in every nook and cranny across the island, local sages can rattle off foolproof 'signs' for a range of things.
In fact, when it comes to the weather, some could even be regarded as experts on the signs.
Some can list several 'good' reasons why 'rain couldn't possibly fall today', or which speck in the sky is a storm cloud. They can tell which of the hot, dry breezes is a rain breeze, or which shade of blue in the sky means it will be a fair day .
But searing heat, lulling breezes and brilliant sunshine aside, it's hurricane season. And possibly a very active one at that, according to weather forecasters.
United States meteorologists predict that the region could receive anywhere from six to nine hurricanes in the period which runs from today June 1 to November 30. In all, a barrage of 11 or 15 tropical storms should pummel the region with six to nine growing into hurricanes and two to four reaching major hurricane strength, with top winds of 111 mph (178 kph) or more.
Jamaica has had a long history of daring misses or death-defying body blows from dangerous hurricanes.
Some records show that from as early as the 1700s, the island had suffered hurricane damage. In June 1886, it was from a "slow-moving quasi-stationary tropical storm or hurricane (which) affected most of the island with tremendous rains, especially in central parishes."
In November 1909, rains from a hurricane moving northeastwards some distance off the east coast deluged the island. Many places in St. Thomas recorded well over 100 inches of rain in a five-day period.
Many remember Hurricane Charlie of 1951 as the worst storm ever in Jamaica's then history. The whole island was hit badly with a final death toll of 154, with 'thousands injured and tens of thousands homeless', according to the Office of Disaster Preparedness and Emergency Management's (ODPEM) records.
Possibly the most famous in recent memory, however, was Hurricane Gilbert in September 1988 which effected massive islandwide destruction in an eight-hour rampage. The ODPEM records that it was the largest cyclonic system ever observed in the western hemisphere.
Then again in November 2001, the flood effects of Hurricane Michelle devastated the parish of Portland. In May of the following year, hurricane forces led to flood damage in Clarendon, Manchester and St. Thomas.
Unfortunately, some areas have had repeat performances.
In 1979 flood waters from a hurricane stayed in the New Market area for nine months and levels rose to 1,168.6 feet with 33.8 inches of rainfall from June 10 to July 25. Five hundred and seventy acres were flooded and 24 houses were totally submerged.
In 2002, flood waters again displaced residents and caused damage. Boat rides into the area showed only rooftops and the tops of the goal posts of a community football field.
Preliminary forecast from the disaster office was that the water level would rise to the 1979 levels and if these levels are attained it will take about nine months for the water to recede.
St. Thomas, another trouble spot has been the proverbial cat of nine lives, surviving repeated devastation from hurricanes.
In 1951, Hurricane Charlie left the town of Morant Bay 80 per cent destroyed as 27 persons were killed in the onslaught.
Numerous other communities throughout the parish were literally wiped out (ODPEM, 2003.) Of 12,505 persons in 15 communities in St. Thomas, 12,005 were made destitute by the storm. The worst-hit community was Yallahs.
Still, local environmental experts say that the damages to these areas could have been avoided by proper planning. Although the island has had more than 50 major events of flooding since the 18th century, many individuals, agencies and communities are still taken off guard with each occurrence.
The ODPEM plots a history of persistent flood damage in many of the areas now seriously affected by recent rains.
According to the research made public on its Web site, 'Disastrous floods occurred in some areas of the island in May and June 1862, 1879.... That year, (1879) more than 180 died as a result of severe flooding of the Yallahs, (St. Thomas) Dry, Hope, Dallas (St. Andrew) and other rivers and gullies.'
A century later the disaster was repeated: 'Between November 4-12, 1909, more than 100 inches of rain fell in parts of St. Thomas, and in upper Clarendon the Pedro Run River rose 30 feet above its normal level.' Thirty years later, in late November 1937 and again in 1940, '...torrential rains once again caused flooding along the north coast of the island. In Portland, 70 persons drowned and the damage to roads, bridges and farms was severe. Later on that month, a landslide at Millbank in the John Crow Mountains of Portland caused a large portion of the mountain to collapse completely burying 150 acres of land, including a small community.
Flooding occurred again in 1979, 1986 and 1987. Last November and recently, eight days of heavy rains due to a low-pressure system again caused flooding and heavy damage in the parishes of Portland, Clarendon, St. Thomas and St. Catherine.
However, today several communities exist in these areas leading the ODPEM to conclude that often many disaster situations are as a result of irresponsible planning.
