Lacy Wright – Letter From Washington THE DRAMATIC reversal of fortunes experienced by US forces in Iraq has shown me once again the peril of accepting the common wisdom in the prediction of human events, and how often those who doubt the possibility of sweeping change are wrong.
On March 27, with American troops stopped by a sandstorm on their way to Baghdad and British forces meeting unexpected resistance around Basra, our TV sets were fairly exploding with recrimination. Not only were the anti-war activists saying that a disaster was unfolding, but retired US generals were asserting the campaign was going badly. Many in between were pointing to the absence of cheering Iraqis as evidence of a fundamental and deeply embarrassing miscalculation on Washington's part.
WELCOMING THE LIBERATORS
Two weeks later, American troops controlled Baghdad, UK soldiers had secured Basra, and Iraqis were welcoming both as liberators. Many had let their exaggerated fears of the difficulty of the task impair their judgement. They should have recalled that, before the first Gulf War and during the bombing of Milosevich's Serbia, there was similar hand-wringing by those who feared an unsuccessful if not disastrous outcome.
There is something in all of us that makes us reluctant to believe that large-scale change is possible. Savants are forever pointing to deep-seated traditions and historic patterns of behaviour to argue that such-and-such can't happen. In this view, for example, anyone hoping for a democratic Iraq or one that gets ethnic frictions under control is a hopeless dreamer.
CHANGES IN HUMAN BEHAVIOUR
I hold a contrary view. I think, first, that basic human impulses, such as the will to be free, often trump tradition. Thus, I am not surprised to see the delight of many (though not all) Iraqis at the sight of soldiers that elsewhere in the Middle East are being called invaders. Second, I believe that, with the right combination of incentives and disincentives, striking changes in human behaviour can occur rapidly. Take China. Thirty years ago that country was wallowing in an ugly, repressive "cultural revolution." Today, a visitor can hardly distinguish Shanghai or Beijing from Hong Kong.
Perhaps the most important key to understanding what is unfolding in Iraq is the heinous brutality of the Saddam Hussein regime, now being revealed in all its horror to those who were not paying attention before. This explains why the Iraqi military folded like a house of cards; why many Iraqis, both in Iraq and in foreign countries, are overjoyed at the coalition's attack, even though it also killed and injured some Iraqi civilians; and why we can expect some further violence as survivors wreak vengeance on regime torturers and murderers.
So vile was this government, in fact, that, whether coalition forces find weapons of mass destruction or not, I believe its over
throw was justified. Indeed, to have stood by and let it continue in power, as all our governments did for too long, would have been immoral. The objection that other regimes may be in the same dismal class of human rights abusers does not move me. That is tantamount to saying that if you can't do right in all cases, you should refrain from doing right in any. Moreover, the principle is now well accepted that governments can be called to account by the world community for the way they treat their own citizens; they are not allowed to hide behind protestations of national sovereignty.
Difficult issues remain. While the looting and similar criminality will probably be brought quickly under control, and the lights and water will return, the question of who will now lead Iraq involves a difficult dilemma. On the one hand, the United States and other coalition members want the Iraqis to decide their governance for themselves. On the other, there is a real possibility that the majority Shi'ites will lean toward the kind of theocracy that governs Iran: authoritarian, backward, and hostile to the West.
Weaning the Shiites away from that kind of vision will not be easy. The Middle East is full of voices that regard even the unseating of a tyrant like Saddam Hussein as a defeat for Islam, and they will be urging Iraq's Shiites to revert to the old Moslem model where church and state are one. The western countries involved will instead be offering incentives, from diplomatic encouragement to economic assistance, designed to bring into being an Iraqi government that is democratic and modern in outlook.
Who's to say it can't be done? Stranger things have happened.
Lacy Wright was Deputy Chief of Mission at the US Embassy in Kingston and acted as Ambassador in 1993-1994. He can be reached at LacyWright@cox.net.
