Election Day in the US

John Rapley - Foreign Focus

AS THE American election campaigns enter their final days, the race for control of Congress is heating up. Known as a midterm election, since the President is half-way through his term, this one does not elicit the same interest as that shown when the Presidency is at stake.

All of the House of Representatives, one third of the Senate and a number of governorships are, however, due for renewal. And it is in the House and, especially, Senate races that interest is keen. This is because the two parties, Republicans and Democrats, have split the Congress for the last two years right down the middle.

Control of the Congress, and with it the country's legislative agenda, is thus up for grabs. On the face of it, this should be a good year for Democrats, as midterm elections tend to give the advantage to the party out of the White House. President George W. Bush's popularity has mitigated this advantage somewhat, although in a country in which it is often said all politics is local, the President's coat-tails do not actually have too great an impact on most races.

Rather, the Democrats are still suffering from some of the internal divisions that hobbled them during the 2000 election, at a time when Republican unity is strong. The rightward shift of the Democratic Party that took place during the 1990s, when Bill Clinton judged that pragmatism would -- and did, for a time -- yield electoral advantage, continues to leave some Democrats demoralised. In contrast, the Republicans have united behind an increasingly conservative agenda which pleases their constituents. So while some underlying demographic trends appear to favour the long-term rise of the Democratic Party, in the short term, it may suffer from lower rates of turn-out.

Equally, the Democrats have met with little success in shifting the political spotlight to those issues in which they enjoy an obvious advantage. Polls suggest that Democrats are stronger than Republicans on social issues and the economy. Accordingly, the party leadership had hoped to put issues like health care and education at the top of the electoral agenda. Instead, President Bush has effectively kept the nation's focus on terrorism and Iraq, issues on which the Republicans enjoy the advantage.

The Democratic response to this challenge reveals the kinds of difficulties they encounter. Eager to take Iraq off the political agenda, Senate Democrats supported a resolution authorising President Bush to go to war. The calculation was that with this issue out of the way, it would lose its salience. The problem was, the haste of this action was seen as unseemly by some important Democratic backers.

Recent reports in the American media suggest that major liberal donors, annoyed with what they see as the Democratic leadership's renunciation of some traditional party principles, have tightened their purse-strings. In recent days, it appears the Republicans have succeeded in raising far more money than Democrats to fund their candidates' campaigns. That gives the Republicans the advantage.

Still, it may not be decisive. Current polls and analyses suggest that while the Democrats are likely to move into a few Governors' mansions, their dream of re-taking the House of Representatives will be frustrated yet again. By a razor-thin majority, the Republicans look set to maintain their grip on the lower house of the American Congress. So, all eyes are on the Senate.

Presently, the Democrats barely control the upper house. Split 50-50 after the last election, the Senate fell into the party's lap when a Republican Senator became an independent and threw his support behind the Democratic leadership. The Republicans are eager to take back the Senate, and have a chance of it. But the Democrats are fighting fiercely, and events could yet tip the balance in either direction.

For example, the recent death of Democratic Senator Paul Wellstone, paradoxically, gave new life to the Democratic campaign in his state. The party may thus hold onto the Senate, if only by a one-seat margin. Thus, the elections will probably reveal the US to be a divided country. However, they will arguably also stand as an indictment of the Democrats for their failure to put in a stronger showing than, by rights, they ought to be doing.

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