WTO and the Caribbean: Is a new round of trade negotiations needed?

Elizabeth Morgan, Contributor

ONCE the date for the fourth World Trade Organisation (WTO) Ministerial Conference was agreed in the WTO's General Council, the focus of members became centred on the issue of whether or not a new round of comprehensive multilateral trade negotiations should be launched.

For some, the real argument is not the matter of yes or no to a new round, as everyone wants changes in the multilateral trading system, but really what should be the agenda of a new round. Regardless of which is more relevant, both are decisions to be taken by consensus in the WTO.

It could be said that the focus of WTO members continued to be on launching a new round the moment the dust of Seattle had settled. The objective of the confidence-building process launched in the General Council to address implementation issues and internal transparency was to encourage the developing countries to join consensus to launch a new round and support the inclusion of multilateral disciplines in new areas.

The Director-General of the WTO, Mike Moore of New Zealand, assumed his post in September 1999 after a contentious and unsatisfactory selection process against Dr. Supachai Panitchpakdi of Thailand. In a compromise, Supachai will share a six-year term and will assume the post of director-general of WTO in September 2002.

The disastrous Seattle Ministerial Conference was an inauspicious beginning to Mr. Moore's tenure as Director-General. Thereafter, the director-general began his campaign to promote and achieve consensus on the launch of a new round in the interest of developing countries particularly the LDCs and the multilateral trading system. This would be the crowning achievement of his truncated tenure (three years) as director-general.

The WTO director-general normally serves for five years. In some quarters, concern has been expressed about the role of the WTO director-general in promoting the launch of a new round. An article in the February 1 - 15 issue of Third World Economics: Trends and Analysis has stated:

The director-general's championing the cause of a new round in the WTO at this stage raises some basic institutional issues. The main point to ponder over is whether it is correct and proper for the director-general or any other part of the WTO Secretariat to promote a subject over which there is as yet no consensus, but in fact, serious differences among the membership.

The major supporters of a new round are the developed countries and, particularly the European Union, which wants the launch of a comprehensive round which would include the "new" issues - investment, competition policy, trade facilitation, electronic commerce, government procurement and environment. Labour is highly sensitive and is unlikely to be raised. The European Union has its own internal agenda which is driving its desire to launch a new round. In addition, there is a general belief among developed countries that a new round will lead to a significant growth in international trade and restore the credibility of the multilateral trading system.

Among the developed countries there is division on the question of the agenda of a new round. There are some countries, like members of EU and Japan, which want a comprehensive round, and others, like the United States, which are trending towards a round of much more limited scope addressing fewer issues.

Among the developing countries, there is also a divide among those wanting a new round (yes, there are developing countries fully in support of a new round), whether comprehensive or limited in scope, and those which do not want a new round. The former group includes countries in Latin America, such as Chile, Mexico, Colombia, Argentina, Costa Rica, and countries in Asia and Africa, such as Thailand, Singapore, South Korea and South Africa. Those opposed to a new round or taking the "cautious" approach include Cuba, the Dominican Republic, India, Pakistan, a number of countries in Africa, such as Tanzania, Nigeria, Zimbabwe and the member states of the Caribbean Community. Those developing countries supporting a new round see it as the most practical means of addressing the imbalances in the Uruguay Round Agreements. They would wish to follow the UNCTAD line of a round with a positive agenda focusing on development issues. Those not in support believe that the WTO should be focusing on issues related to the implementation of the Uruguay Round Agreements and the mandated negotiations in agriculture and services. They also believe that the developed countries are being allowed to push the trade agenda too far and too fast, and that developing countries are always being forced to play catch up. Jamaica and its CARICOM partners are taking the view that the time is not yet right for a new round of multilateral trade negotiations. For them, implementation issues and the concerns of small developing countries need to be addressed as a priority. There is also the issue of resources, human and financial. Jamaica and its CARICOM partners, over the next three years, will be involved in the implementation of the CARICOM Single Market and Economy (CSME), the negotiations for the Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA), ACP/ EU Negotiations, the WTO agriculture and services negotiations, and bilateral negotiations. With this already heavy trade agenda, the question is - can Jamaica and its CARICOM partners also cope effectively with the demands of a full round of trade negotiations in the WTO?

Consultations on a new round have been taking place among various groups of countries, the OECD, APEC, the QUADS, ASEAN, MERCOSUR, the Andean Pact, ACP, the African Group, Like-Minded Groups, Friends of a New Round and within CARICOM. The EU and other developed countries have been consulting with groups of developing countries and the director-general has been travelling the world marketing the round. Every opportunity is being taken to intensify consultations and to lobby for support as the count down begins to the Ministerial Conference in Doha.

On Monday July 30, the WTO General-Council will hold a meeting to review preparations for the Ministerial Conference. This meeting has been termed the "reality check" as the director-general has been hoping that an assessment of progress towards building consensus on a new round can be made. The object will be to try to determine whether or not it will be possible to achieve consensus by November.

It should be noted that at the national level in many countries, there continues to be a divide between NGOs, the private sector and Govern-ment officials and, at the multilateral level, there continues to be a divide between those who want a new round and those who do not. Among those wanting a new round, there continues to be a divide between those who want a comprehensive round and those wanting a limited round. This debate is a complex one and, at the end of the July 30 meeting, the reality might not be so clear for anybody. For countries such as Jamaica, it may well be the assessment of the economic, social and political reality at the national and regional levels that will determine definitively the approach that will be taken to the issue of a new round at the Ministerial Confer-ence in November.

In August, the WTO scales down its work for the summer holidays, consultations will be continuing within CARICOM and elsewhere. The two month period, September to October, leading to Doha will be an interesting one for the WTO and its Members.

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