THE DECISION of Vermont Senator James Jeffords to quit the Republican Party has suddenly and dramatically changed the character of American politics. Although he will sit as an independent, he has indicated that he will back Democrat Tom Daschle as the new Senate Majority leader. This will tip the balance in the Senate towards the Democrats.
This changes everything. The US Constitution holds that when a vote in the Senate is evenly split, the Vice President may break the tie. For as long as Republicans and Democrats had 50 seats each, the Republican White House could effectively ensure itself control of the Senate. But now that the split is gone, the White House cannot count on Senate support for its legislative agenda. President Bush's ambitiously conservative programme thus faces new challenges.
Senator Jeffords blamed his departure on a right-wing tilt by the Republicans which left him feeling marginalised. President George W. Bush came to office with a slim margin of victory and in circumstances which were, at the time, controversial. In light of those facts, he probably did not enjoy a mandate for a sweeping conservative agenda. But that has been largely what he has delivered his countrymen. There may thus be some justice in Senator Jeffords' decision.
Whatever his personal motives, it can be argued that he has restored a balance to US federal politics that is more in line with the intentions expressed by voters in last November's elections. Conservative Republicans would do well to take notice.
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