By Lloyd Williams,
Senior Associate Editor
A BATTLE royal has been waged these last few weeks by the ruling People's National Party, the Opposition Jamaica Labour Party, the struggling National Democratic Movement and an independent candidate, for the parliamentary constituency of St. Ann North East.
For the PNP, which has won eight of the nine elections held for the seat since it was created in 1959, winning today's election there, would be an endorsement of its performance despite all the problems - once more with feeling.
For the JLP, which has won the seat only once - in the 1980 general election when Robert Marsh whipped Vinroy Brown of the PNP a win today would mean a most welcome sign of the public acceptance it has been denied in the last three general elections, and a very encouraging sign of things to come.
For the National Democratic Movement which has been trying to get the public's attention since polling a total of 36,707 votes islandwide 4.76 per cent in its debut in the December 18, 1997 general election, winning the seat would be its crowning glory and would be like a magnet to every elector who is disenchanted with the JLP and the PNP, spurring them to work like oxen to stake their claim in the upcoming general election.
Mr. Astor Black, the independent candidate, will tell you that a win for him would be a major step in his quest to become Jamaica's first Rastafarian Prime Minister.
But let's look at the history if not the changing reality of previous elections in St. Ann North East.
In the 1959 general election, the PNP's Edwin R. Tucker, defeated the JLP's S.A. Lambie by 6,570 votes to 3,272.
Mr. Tucker repeated the performance in the 1962 general election, again defeating Mr. Lambie, this time by 6,176 votes to 4,422, with Mr. Sedley A. Johns of the People's Political Party polling 130 votes.
In the 1967 general election, Kingstonian Wills O. Isaacs of the PNP, polled 4,457 votes to 3,473 for Pat Burke of the JLP.
Wills Isaacs again won easily in the 1972 general election, defeating Alwyn J. Tai of the JLP by 6,421 votes to 3,552.
The resignation of Wills Isaacs from politics in 1973 to become Jamaica's High Commissioner in Canada triggered in the constituency a by-election on July 3 which saw his political secretary, Hazel Hamilton, beating Pearnel Charles of the JLP by 5,798 votes to 3,038.
In the 1976 general election, Vivian Blake, Q.C., defeated the JLP's Robert Marsh by 8,660 votes to 5,470.
Blake retired in 1978 sparking in the constituency another by-election which saw Vinroy Brown of the PNP polling 5,083 votes to the 191 of H. Charles Johnson of the Jamaica United Front, and 960 for L. Perkins, independent.
The general election of 1980 which resulted in a landslide for the JLP, saw that party achieving its first and only hold on the constituency. Then, Robert Marsh polled 9,979 votes to 6,941 for Vinroy Brown of the PNP.
Since the PNP did not contest the 1983 general election, Robert Marsh, the JLP nominee, was elected unopposed..
But in the 1989 general election in which the PNP ousted the JLP, the PNP's Manley Bowen took the seat, defeating Patricia Pink of the JLP by 9,532 votes to 6,227.
In the 1993 general election Manley Bowen of the PNP beat Robert C. McFarlane of the JLP by 6,411 votes to 4,876.
In the 1997 general election, Danny Melville of the PNP polled 9,150 votes, a majority of 2,088 over the 7,062 for Michael Belnavis of the JLP, and 8,632 over the 518 for Dr. Osmond Tomlinson of the NDM.
Today's election which was precipitated by the resignation of Danny Melville of the PNP, should, if history repeats itself, see Carrol Jackson, the PNP candidate, defeating Shahine Robinson of the JLP, Barbara Clarke of the NDM and Astor Black, Independent.
But if a pervasive wind of change blows through St. Ann North East and either Mrs. Robinson or Mrs Clarke wins, then Mr. Patterson and his merry team had better start packing their bags, kissing the Houses of Parliament goodbye.
