The Afghanistan campaign

IN THE days after it began bombing Afghanistan, the US government exuded confidence in its strategy.

Nearly three weeks on, though, the front lines are holding, the Northern Alliance is making no inroads and a key rebel leader has been captured and killed by the Taliban. Just how difficult this campaign will be is growing apparent.

The Americans continue to rely on aerial bombardment. This keeps their own casualties low, but produces civilian casualties among the Afghans. As these are broadcast around the Muslim world, popular sentiment against the Americans hardens. Within the parts of Afghanistan controlled by the Taliban, meanwhile, support for the Islamist army appears to be growing.

The danger of the American military approach, therefore, is that while its enemy digs in, its allies may want to pull out. As yet, there is no evidence that Pakistan, upon which the US relies for operations bases and intelligence, is going to withdraw from the alliance. Nonetheless, it is growing wary of the long American campaign. And with the Americans now saying it will continue through the winter, the Pakistani government may find itself under pressure to withdraw some of its concessions.

For now, the alliance against the Taliban and its allies is holding. However, as time passes, the images of people jumping from the World Trade Centre will be replaced by those of children in Afghan hospitals. Without a breakthrough soon, the Americans may find their strategy getting very complicated indeed.

The opinions on this page, except for the above, do not necessarily reflect the views of The Gleaner.

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