SOMETIMES IT seems there are no answers to Jamaica's economic problems.

Most of our traditional sources of income ­ sugar, bananas, coffee, bauxite etc ­ are all threatened in various ways.

Tourism is adversely affected by growing regional competition, our high crime rate, harassment, ageing plant and degraded natural resources.

Our workforce has far too high a percentage of under-educated and unskilled persons. High interest rates militate against any new areas of endeavour that require substantial investment.

Every discussion on any one of Jamaica's ills - low standards of education, violence, unemployment, the breakdown of social services and the judicial system - leads back to economic stagnation.

How can any remedy be paid for in a country saddled with one of the three worst-performing economies in the region? (Our partners of dubious distinction are Guyana and Haiti). In a country where 60 cents of every dollar goes to repay debt and the Government's only response to this is to borrow more, year after year, what IS the answer?

Answer

Professor Anthony Clayton of the University of the West Indies believes part of the answer could lie in the exploding market for nutraceuticals.

"Supplying this market could absolutely transform Jamaica's economy," he says.

Briefly, nutraceuticals and functional foods are new industries based on convincing clinical evidence that various molecules (called actives) extracted from food plants can both treat and prevent many major degenerative diseases.

"Conventional medicine tends to address symptoms," says Prof. Clayton, "but now there is strong evidence that the right combination of actives could actually break the sequence of events which leads to disease."

The size of the nutraceutical/functional food world market is currently just under US$100 billion at consumer prices. This is projected to grow to US$240 billion by 2005. The Caribbean's potential share of the market to supply the ingredients is probably between one and five per cent, and for finished products, perhaps 0.05 per cent. At a conservative estimate, that share would, by 2005, be worth US$1.8 billion - not much less than Jamaica's entire current foreign earnings.

We can and already do grow foods which look like promising sources of actives - ginger, turmeric, black pepper, sugar cane, bananas and pimento are all good candidates. Seizing this opportunity could reverse the decline in agriculture by allowing existing uneconomic crops to be replaced by those with greater value added and much better returns.

In addition, Jamaica currently has access to the cutting edge of this dynamic science and the associated markets through Prof. Clayton's high-level contacts in the industry overseas.

"The other plus for Jamaica is that it's unlikely these crops will be affected by praedial larceny," goes on Prof. Clayton. "If you take ginger as an example, you want a root with a high level of flavonoids. You could probably increase the concentration still further if you stressed the plant by withholding water. The resulting ginger would taste bitter and look wrinkled. You'd have trouble selling it for food. Similarly, with bananas, the actives ­ phospholipids ­ are extracted from the skin. So you'd want to breed an industrial banana which was all skin and no fruit. No-one would want to eat ­ or steal ­ that kind of banana."

"So where's the catch?" I ask, thinking it all sounds a bit too good to be true.

"It's a very demanding market," says Prof. Clayton. "We'd have to conform to at least three different regulatory requirements and meet some tough delivery schedules."

"Does it need Government involvement?" I ask, thinking: Kiss of Death.

"No, but it would need a consortium of companies. No one Jamaican company currently has the combination of size, technologies, skills and contacts to do it on its own. And this needs to happen fast. Any one of the larger countries in the region could take the dominant role in supplying the nutraceutical market, so it just depends on who moves first. Jamaica might have two years left to build a significant presence in the market, but probably not more."

Almost as much of a hurdle as government involvement, I think. A group of businessmen coming together, sharing information, pooling resources and acting quickly? I don't know...

"What else is there?" asks Prof. Clayton, sensing my scepticism.

"Tourism will always be fickle, we can't compete with traditional agriculture, bauxite is becoming more and more precarious, the present strategy for information technology involves mostly low-end transitional activities such as call centres. On the other hand, there are no critical technical obstacles to developing a major nutraceuticals supply industry and the commercial potential is right there. It's tantalising..."

Tantalising is the right word. I see so clearly why it could work and why it probably won't. We'd need a ­ wait for it ­ paradigm shift in our business and political culture. A visionary leader. And a group of people with egos sufficiently under control to facilitate the necessary collaboration.

Definitely a tall order...